[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 272346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W SOUTH OF 15W
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION IS NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN THE VISIBLE
IMAGERY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND IT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 9N TO 12N
BETWEEN 48W AND 50W.   ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N
TO 13N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  THIS WAVE IS NOW DIFFICULT TO TRACK
USING SATELLITE IMAGERY.  CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN
73W AND76W...AND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W.

WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT...PASSING OVER BELIZE...HONDURAS... AND
EL SALVADOR.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 9N34W 9N46W 7N60W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 10N
TO 20N BETWEEN 12W AND 16W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
7N TO 10N BETWEEN 14W AND 25W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 53W AND 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WET WEATHER PATTERN COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH TROPICAL
MOISTURE ADVECTING N FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN.  A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N26W TO THE GULF OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS IN CLUSTERS E OF 93W TO INCLUDE THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...THE E GULF OF MEXICO...AND FLORIDA.  FAIR WEATHER
REMAINS OVER THE NW GULF W OF 93W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS CENTERED
ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N90W.  A RIDGE EXTENDS NE TO
BEYOND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
OFF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N93W PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
FAR W GULF W OF 93W.  EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH ITS
CONVECTION TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  MEANWHILE EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION TO MOVE N TO THE CENTRAL GULF AND DOMINATE THE
ENTIRE GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE.  IN ADDITION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W.  SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 80W AND
83W...AND FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER INLAND HAITI.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...MOISTURE FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OFF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS W OF 80W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N65W.  UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PUSHING S OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN
60W-80W.  AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E
CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 60W-80W.  EXPECT ALL SURFACE
FEATURES TO MOVE W IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL MOVE W TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR
15N75W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF BERMUDA NEAR
36N64W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG
32N51W 25N55W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N64W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.  A 1028 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 38N29W.  NE SURFACE FLOW
IS FROM 20N-32N E OF 45W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W.  LARGE TROUGH IS BETWEEN 50W-75W.
LARGE E/W RIDGE IS OVER W AFRICA AND THE E ATLANTIC FROM 5N-25N
W OF 50W.  RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 17N.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 25N AND E OF 35W.

$$
FORMOSA


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