[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 271806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 32W SOUTH OF 15W
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE POSITION LOOKS GOOD BASED ON THE
RAWINSONDE DATA FROM A FEW AFRICAN STATIONS. ALL PRECIPITATION
ANYWHERE NEAR THIS WAVE IS IN THE ITCZ.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W SOUTH
OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN
THE VISIBLE IMAGERY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND IT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
9N TO 13N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W. PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE WAVE.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W SOUTH
OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THIS WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR SOUTH OF 17N
BETWEEN 64W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE.

WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W SOUTH
OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT...PASSING OVER HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N84W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE MEXICO/NORTHWESTERN GUATEMALA BORDER NEAR
18N91W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 16N TO 27N BETWEEN 83W AND 90W
GOING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM
THE COAST TO 20N BETWEEN 92W AND 94W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 10N14W 7N20W 7N26W 9N30W...9N34W 10N44W...9N46W 7N58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 57W AND 61W FROM COASTAL GUYANA INTO THE
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF VENEZUELA. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N
TO 12N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 22W...PROBABLY WITH THE NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
SOME WEAKENING DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS...FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN
22W AND 30W. OTHER SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 30W
AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER JUST
EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF BEYOND 32N79W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE RIDGE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED IN
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 26N84W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE
MEXICO/NORTHWESTERN GUATEMALA BORDER NEAR 18N91W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM 16N TO 27N BETWEEN 83W AND 90W GOING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE COAST TO 20N BETWEEN 92W
AND 94W. EXPECT CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT DAY OR SO ANYWHERE NEAR THE RIDGE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER
JUST EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF BEYOND 32N79W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE RIDGE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN
THE AREA AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA-TO-SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SURFACE TROUGH...SPECIFICALLY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 26N84W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
THE MEXICO/NORTHWESTERN GUATEMALA BORDER NEAR 18N91W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM 16N TO 27N BETWEEN 83W AND 90W GOING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE COAST TO 20N BETWEEN 92W
AND 94W. EXPECT CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT DAY OR SO ANYWHERE NEAR THE RIDGE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST
OF 71W IS BEING COVERED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
THANKS TO A DEEP LAYER TROUGH...WHICH ACTUALLY STARTS OUT IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 32N56W TO 24N61W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR 18N63W INTO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA NEAR 7N66W. THE
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN RIDGE
IS PUSHING NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 70W
AND 80W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS
MOVING NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS SAME 70W TO 80W AREA.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 64W AND
80W. ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W AND A SECOND ONE IS
ALONG 86W/87W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
32N79W RIDGE IS COVERING THE ATLANTIC WATERS WEST OF 75W.
ANOTHER RIDGE TO THE NORTH ALSO IS IMPARTING UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W
AND 70W. THIS SAME AREA ALSO IS RECEIVING NORTHERLY WINDS THANKS
TO THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OF THE DEEP LAYER 32N56W TO
24N61W TO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH...
PART OF THE WHOLE PATTERN...EXTENDS FROM 30N51W TO 24N55W TO
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N64W. WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 150 NM TO THE RIGHT OF 30N52W 25N56W 20N65W. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST
AND WEST OF THE 30N51W 18N64W SURFACE TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N21W
NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 32N15W. NO SURFACE FRONTAL FEATURE IS SOUTH
OF 30N WITH THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE.

$$
MT

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