[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 36W SOUTH OF 15W
MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.  LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
POSITION FURTHER E NEAR 30W.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF
LOCATING WAVES AT NIGHT WITH IR IMAGERY...THE POSITION IS HELD
RATHER THAN REPOSITIONED.  REPOSITIONING MAY BE REQUIRED LATER
TODAY ONCE VISIBLE IMAGERY BECOMES AVAILABLE.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W SOUTH OF
15N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO DEMONSTRATE A
WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE IN BOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND QUIKSCAT
DATA.  IN FACT...A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 10N.  HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
MINIMAL WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED CELLS OF MODERATE ACTIVITY.

EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THE WAVE HAS LITTLE OR NO SATELLITE
SIGNATURE BUT IS POSITION IS CONFIRMED BY THE UPPER AIR
TIMESECTION FROM GUADELOUPE INDICATING A PASSAGE SUNDAY.  THE
WAVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL
CONFLUENCE AND DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE
LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS.  THIS ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPRESSING DEEP
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 15 KT.  A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM 14N-18N. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY OVER OPEN WATER BUT MAY CLIP PORTIONS OF
HONDURAS TONIGHT.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N10W 7N20W 10N40W 7N60W THEN OVER
N PORTIONS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE ITCZ FROM THE COAST OF
AFRICA TO 30W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 250 NM N
OF THE ITCZ FROM 53W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RATHER MOIST AND UNSETTLED PATTERN HAS ONCE AGAIN BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE E GLFMEX AND FLORIDA COURTESY OF UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING FROM LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO AND THE N
EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE STRETCHING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA.  THE WAVE BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE INTO THE SE GLFMEX AND S FLORIDA WITH AREA SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NOW ABOVE 2 INCHES.  THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COUPLED WITH AN INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT
UPPER PATTERN IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS/TSTMS S AND E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.  THE STRONGEST
OF THIS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY RESIDES JUST E OF THE WAVE AXIS
AFFECTING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...FLORIDA STRAITS...AND S
FLORIDA.  EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY SPREAD NWD OVER THE
REMAINDER OF FLORIDA AND E GLFMEX DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING OVER THE
ALREADY RAIN SOAKED FLORIDA PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA WHERE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE POOLING ASSOCIATED WITH A
PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES COUPLED WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM W
HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR WESTWARD INTO S MEXICO E OF THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC.  ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS LOCATED OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN 100-200 NM SW OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
AS WELL AS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY SPREAD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVERSPREAD
THIS AREA.  OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN...MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR W OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR
13N62W DOMINATES THE AREA E JAMAICA.  THIS PATTERN IS
SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SAVE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CURRENTLY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES WESTWARD AND DEEP-LAYERED
MOISTURE RETURNS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS A STRONG MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN BUILDS NEWD OVER
FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC AND A TROUGH DIGS SWD OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC FROM 32N53W TO ROUGHLY 20N62W.  RESULTING FLOW HAS BECOME
LESS DIFFLUENT OVER THE W ATLC WATERS WITH DECREASING
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY E OF THE BAHAMAS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS CONTINUE FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WESTWARD OVER S FLORIDA
COURTESY OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E GLFMEX AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
CARIBBEAN.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE W OF THE AREA DURING THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  ADDITIONALLY...THE CENTRAL ATLC UPPER TROUGH
HAS BEGUN TO FRAGMENT FORMING AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD ALONG 29N/30N REACHING 60W TONIGHT.  CONFLUENT FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL PRODUCE DRYING
ALOFT AND TRANQUIL WEATHER OVER THE W ATLC THROUGH THE NEXT 2
DAYS. E OF THE UPPER LOW...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS PRODUCING A
LINE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 150-200 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 32N50W TO 27N51W TO THE N LEEWARD
ISLANDS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MARCH SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH THE
RETROGRADING UPPER LOW AND BECOME PRIMARILY FOCUSED N OF 25N.
OVER THE E ATLC...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF
20N E OF 40W WITH MOSTLY STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA.  FINALLY OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC....A WELL-DEFINED E/W
ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 17N/18N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.  AS A RESULT...DEEP-LAYERED ELY FLOW
DOMINATES THE TROPICAL BELT S OF ABOUT 15N.

$$
RHOME




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net