[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270016
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W SOUTH OF 15W
MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. SMALL CYCLONIC SWIRL IS NOTED N OF THE
ITCZ.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W SOUTH OF
15N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE WAS REPOSITIONED USING A
MULTI-DAY SATELLITE LOOP.  A DISTINCT CYCLONIC SWIRL IS NOTED N
OF THE ITCZ.  CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.

EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. POSITION IS VERY DIFFICULT TO VERIFY.
CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO INLAND VENEZUELA.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 10N69W.

CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 10-15 KT. INVERTED V SIGNATURE IS NOTED OVER HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND
FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 84W-87W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO ALONG 92W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 KT.  PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 90W-94W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 8N20W 10N35W 10N45W 8N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 14W-18W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 17W-28W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 40W-45W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN
50W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE E GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG 31N82W 26N85W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER N FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FROM 29N-30N BETWEEN 81W-83W.
ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA
KEYS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 25N82W 22N86W 19N89W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE TROUGH AXIS
BETWEEN 70W-90W MOVING N.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10-15
KT ELY SURFACE FLOW.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N87W HAS
PUSHED N AND NOW INFLUENCES MOST ALL OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
ADVECTING PACIFIC MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDINESS E OF 94W.  A
SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER S TEXAS NEAR 26N97W PRODUCING
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FAR W GULF W OF 94W.  EXPECT THE SURFACE
OVER THE SE GULF TO MOVE NW IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BRING IN MORE
CONVECTION TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF.  THE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE N TO THE E GULF IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS PRODUCING CONTINUED HIGH CLOUDINESS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE.  IN ADDITION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 88W-91W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 19N-21N
BETWEEN 84W-86W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 18N TO BEYOND 23N BETWEEN
76W-84W.  ALL THE ABOVE CONVECTION IS DUE TO THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO SURFACE TROUGH.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOISTURE FROM THE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS W
OF 80W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 15N60W.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PUSHING S OVER THE
NE CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 60W-80W.  AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-15N
BETWEEN 60W-80W.  EXPECT ALL SURFACE FEATURES TO MOVE W IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NE OF BERMUDA NEAR
35N62W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG
30N49W 24N52W 21N57W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
60 NM OF THE TROUGH.  A STRONG 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE
AZORES NEAR 44N27W.  NE SURFACE FLOW IS FROM 20N-32N E OF 43W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W.
LARGE TROUGH IS BETWEEN 50W-75W.  LARGE E/W RIDGE IS OVER W
AFRICA AND THE E ATLANTIC FROM 5N-25N W OF 50W.  RIDGE AXIS IS
ALONG 17N.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 25N AND E OF
35W.

$$
FORMOSA


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