[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 261037
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 16W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
BROAD WAVE IS OBSERVED ON THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 7N FROM
27W-34W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 14N MOVING W
10-15 KT. WEAK WAVE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF THE AXIS
WITHIN 45 OF 8N FROM 42W-46W.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W S OF 15N MOVING W
5-10 KT. THIS IS A VERY WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE SETTLED IN AN
AREA OF VERY DRY AIR...THUS NO SHOWERS OR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W S OF 19N MOVING W
10 KT. WAVE IS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO CUBA/HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN
79W-82W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 88W/89W S OF 17N
MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS NOW COMPLETELY INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS S OF 18N W OF 85W TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS...
GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N11W 5N19W 10N30W 9N44W 6N54W
8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO THE ITCZ AXIS
W OF 16W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER NEAR 31N90W AND A
SHARP NARROW TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG THE TEXAS/MEXICO COAST TO
21N97W. A SECOND BROADER TROUGH EXTENDS E ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE W ATLC N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 30N76W. THIS BROAD MID/UPPER
LOW ALSO COVERS THE SE UNITED STATES. THE TEXAS/MEXICO TROUGH
AXIS IS FORCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR OVER
MEXICO N OF 20N. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A MID/UPPER HIGH OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W N TO
26N90W. THIS IS PRODUCING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW OVER MOST
OF THE GULF AND ADVECTING PACIFIC TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE S
GULF S OF 26N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW
GULF WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S
OF 21N. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS RELATIVELY SHOWER FREE. AT
THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO A WEAK
1012 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA THEN
S TO 24N85W...WHICH IS A WIND SHIFT AND PRODUCING NO SHOWERS OR
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A UPPER HIGH ALONG THE COAST
OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W ENE TO E CUBA. DIFFLUENCE S OF E
CUBA...FROM THE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA HAS WEAKENED
SOMEWHAT THUS ONLY PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N BETWEEN 75W-79W. AT THE SURFACE...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N87W ACROSS W CUBA TO THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W...WHICH IS A WIND SHIFT AND PRODUCING NO
SHOWERS OR CONVECTION. E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER A MID/UPPER CUT OFF
LOW THAT IS MOVING W FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 15N60W
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW S OF 18N FROM 58W-70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH
DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS IS KEEPING THE AREA E OF 73W CLOUD AND
SHOWER FREE.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GULF EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W
OF 75W. DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS FROM
23N-28N BETWEEN 75W-80W. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 10012 MB LOW NEAR 31N81W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR
JACKSONVILLE. A SHARP RIDGE AXIS IS TO THE E EXTENDING N FROM E
CUBA NEAR 21N76W TO BEYOND 32N71W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN
66W-75W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH 32N59W S
TO 20N65W. FARTHER E...A DEEP-LAYERED CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH
EXTENDS THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 33N51W TO A SECOND LOW NEAR
26N54W TO 21N59W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A STATIONARY
FRONT NEAR 31N50W S TO 19N54W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS N OF 28N FROM 45W-50W. WEAKENING
NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR IS
FILTERING INTO THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. TO THE SE...BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC S OF
23N WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM MAURITANIA/SENEGAL BORDER
ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO NEAR 14N47W. A SECOND MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE NE ATLC N OF 246N E OF 28W. AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH 32N37W S TO 18N44W.

$$
WALLACE



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