[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260529
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 16W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
BROAD WAVE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W S OF 14N MOVING W
10-15 KT. WEAK WAVE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE AXIS
WITHIN 60 OF 9N FROM 38W-45W.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W S OF 15N MOVING W
5-10 KT. THIS IS A VERY WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE SETTLED IN AN
AREA OF VERY DRY AIR...THUS NO SHOWERS OR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 19N MOVING W
10 KT. WAVE IS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO CUBA/HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 17N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN
76W-79W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 87W/88W S OF 18N
MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS VERY NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS. THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N13W 9N30W 7N45W 6N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA WITHIN 45 NM OF A
LINE 6N11W-10N15W AND WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 8N28W-7N33W-5N35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER NE LOUISIANA NEAR 31N90W AND A SHARP NARROW
TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG THE TEXAS/MEXICO COAST TO 21N97W. A
SECOND BROADER TROUGH EXTENDS SE ACROSS S FLORIDA JUST INTO THE
W ATLC AND THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W. THIS BROAD MID/UPPER LOW
ALSO COVERS THE SE UNITED STATES. THE TEXAS/MEXICO TROUGH AXIS
IS FORCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR OVER MEXICO
N OF 20N. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A MID/UPPER HIGH OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N88W N TO 27N92W.
THIS IS PRODUCING WESTERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF THE GULF AND
ADVECTING PACIFIC TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE S GULF S OF 25N.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW GULF WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS RELATIVELY SHOWER
FREE. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
TO A WEAK 1011 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR TAMPA ACROSS THE SE GULF TO
THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N87W...WHICH IS A WIND
SHIFT AND PRODUCING NO SHOWERS OR CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A UPPER HIGH ALONG THE COAST
OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W ENE TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. DIFFLUENCE
OVER E CUBA...FROM THE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS S FLORIDA...IS
GENERATING AN AREA OF CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 77W-87W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF OF HAITI. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N86W ACROSS W CUBA TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR
24N78W...WHICH IS A WIND SHIFT AND PRODUCING NO SHOWERS OR
CONVECTION. E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER A MID/UPPER CUT OFF LOW THAT
MOVED S FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC EARLIER TODAY...CENTERED NEAR
15N59W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW S OF 20N FROM 55W-68W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS IS KEEPING THE AREA E OF
70W CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GULF EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W
OF 75W. THIS HAD BEEN THE FOCUS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
HAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOW UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH IT IS
GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. AT
THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N74W THROUGH A
1009 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA NEAR 31N78W TO OVER
FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. A SHARP RIDGE AXIS IS TO THE E
EXTENDING N FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 32N70W WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN 65W-75W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N62W S TO 21N66W. FARTHER E...A DEEP-LAYERED
CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 32N52W TO
A SECOND LOW NEAR 26N55W TO 21N59W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 31N50W S TO 23N54W. AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS N OF 23N FROM
46W-54W. NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR IS
FILTERING INTO THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. TO THE SE...BROAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC S OF
24N WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM MAURITANIA AFRICA ACROSS THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO NEAR 15N50W. A SECOND MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COVERS THE NE ATLC N OF 26N E OF 30W. AT THE SURFACE...A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH 32N36W S TO 18N40W.

$$
WALLACE


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