[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241036
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

FAR E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 14W MOVING W 15-20
KT. BROAD WAVE IS OBSERVED ON THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES. ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W S OF 13N MOVING W
15-20 KT. WEAK WAVE WITH A SLIGHT V-SHAPED CURVATURE OBSERVED IN
THE CONVECTION...BUT CONFINED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

W ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT. THE
WAVE IS AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE OF A UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
SURGE WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH RELATIVELY DRIER AIR W OF THE WAVE
AXIS TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. WEAK LOW LEVEL V-SHAPED CURVATURE
IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
OR CONVECTION.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W S OF 18N MOVING W
15-20 KT. UPPER LEVEL N FLOW IS OVER THE WAVE AND WITH THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE...THE WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO FIND. POSITION
IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-20N OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 67W-71W.

STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 80W S OF
20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH A LARGE
MID/UPPER LOW/TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA INTO THE
CARIBBEAN PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 74W-79W INCLUDING ALL OF
JAMAICA. THIS WAVE IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS MOVING INTO THE W CARIBBEAN.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS ALONG 88W S OF 19N MOVING
W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY OVER LAND...THUS CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 10N25W 8N37W 6N47W 6N58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE
AXIS FROM 26W-30W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM
5N-12N BETWEEN 10W-20W MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF
THE AXIS FROM 22W-25W...WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM
26W-30W...AND WITHIN 90/120 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 32W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHWARD IS
FORCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR OVER THE N
GULF N OF 26N W OF FLORIDA COAST. A SECOND RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
W/E FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER SW MEXICO TO OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA/CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS IS ADVECTING PACIFIC TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW GULF...WITH THE CONVECTION CONFINED TO
INLAND AREAS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 20N-26W W OF 90W. THE
MAIN FOCUS IS OVER THE E GULF AND THE W ATLC WHERE A DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE AREA W OF 85W. THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W INTO THE GULF OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED ALONG
THE E COAST OF FLORIDA AND IN THE W ATLC.

CARIBBEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA FROM THE W ATLC INTO
THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 17N FROM 75W-86W. THIS HAS LEFT THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE. HOWEVER...A WEAK 1010 MB
SURFACE LOW IN THE W CARIBBEAN HAS MOVED INLAND OVER NE
NICARAGUA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. INTERACTION
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF OVERALL CLOUDINESS
WITH SHOWERS TO HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 72W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS MOISTURE LADEN EXCEPT THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT BUT IS RELATIVELY
CLOUD FREE. UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING IN THE CENTRAL AND NE
CARIBBEAN WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER FORMING CLOSE TO
PUERTO RICO.

ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N79W IS THE MAIN
FOCUS OF WEATHER TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS S INTO
THE CARIBBEAN AND ALSO COVERS A PORTION OF THE E GULF. A SURFACE
TROUGH...PREVIOUSLY A PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE...EXTENDS FROM
30N78W ALONG 26N79W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. DIFFLUENCE E OF
THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 32N TO OVER THE E
CUBA AND HISPANIOLA AND A SMALLER AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 22N-26W BETWEEN 70W-75W. A SWATH OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE
WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 30N78W TO OVER THE E COAST OF FLORIDA
BETWEEN VERO AND WEST PALM BEACH. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE W INTO THE GULF OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO HOWEVER THE
SURFACE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LAG BEHIND. A SURFACE LOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL
FORMATION IS NOT FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME BUT THE AREA HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS FOR CUBA...THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS...AND THE E COAST OF FLORIDA. FARTHER E...AN AMPLIFIED
MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM ACROSS PUERTO RICO NE TO BEYOND
32N57W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS BETWEEN THE THIS RIDGE AND
A DEEP-LAYERED CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM BEYOND
32N46W S THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 29N47W TO 14N51W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N46W TO 25N54W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 250 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
FROM 25N-29N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 75 NM OF 30W FROM 26N-32N. TO THE SE...BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC S OF 25N WITH A
MID/UPPER HIGH LOCATED SE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 14N30W.
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE NE ATLC NEAR 29N27W. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 32N34W SW TO 22N45W.

$$
WALLACE



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