[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221732
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 21W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15
KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ FROM
6N-11N BETWEEN 20W-25W.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 51W S OF 15N MOVING W 15
KT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AND A
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED BETWEEN THE ANALYZED POSITION AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES...THERE HAS BEEN NO CLEAR INDICATION THAT
THE WAVE HAS PASSED CAYENNE. GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE
DEPICTION...THE ANALYZED POSITION IS SOMEWHAT LOW IN CONFIDENCE.
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W S OF 20N MOVING W
15-20 KT. THE WAVE HAS A WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY WITH A COMPACT CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER AND S OF
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
14N-19N BETWEEN 68W-73W. HEAVY RAINS...WITH RATES UP TO 1/2" (13
MM) PER HOUR...HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SPREAD OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WITH THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING
OVER HAITI LATER TODAY...AND THEN OVER E CUBA AND THE SRN
BAHAMAS ON THU AS THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS N BEHIND THE
WAVE.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
THE WAVE SIGNATURE IS RATHER POOR...BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO BE
ENHANCING THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE USUAL DAILY
CONVECTION THAT OCCURS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. A LARGE COMPLEX OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 14N TO PANAMA
BETWEEN 77W-83W...AND ANOTHER LINE OF SCATTERED MODERATE EXTENDS
FROM THE WAVE NW INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. RADAR IMAGERY FROM
SAN ANDRES ISLAND INDICATES THAT THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE THE COSTA RICA/W PANAMA COAST...AND TO
THE E OF SAN ANDRES.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER SRN MEXICO ALONG 93W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT.
THE WAVE IS BEST DEFINED OVER THE PACIFIC WHERE A LARGE GYRE IS
DEVELOPING S OF GUATEMALA. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OVER MEXICO AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N10W 8N30W 6N42W 14N67W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
20W-37W. SCATTERED MODERATE UP TO 240 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
40W-47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 50W-64W
WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS/TSTMS AFFECTING TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...
GRENADA...AND THE GRENADINES.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND SOUTHEAST U.S. SHOW A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF DROPPING DOWN
ACROSS THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER...AND A CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE E GULF WATERS NEAR 26N86W. THIS UPPER LOW IS STRONGER
THAN ANY OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED...AND IT APPEARS
TO HAVE LED TO THE FORMATION OF A SFC LOW ABOUT 120 NM W OF
TAMPA BAY FLORIDA NEAR 27N85W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
LOW AND STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE NEAR THE W FLORIDA COAST HAVE
TRIGGERED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
TO TAMPA BAY BETWEEN 80W-86W...AND SOME OF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY
IS POISED TO MOVE ONSHORE THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS S FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN/TSTMS OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...PART OF THE SFC TROF WHICH WAS ATTACHED TO THE E
GULF LOW HAS SPLIT OFF AND BEGUN MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NW ALONG
28N88W 19N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE TROF
FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 88W-97W. TSTMS HAVE BEEN CONTINUOUSLY
POPPING ALONG THE TAIL END OF THIS TROF FOR THE PAST 24
HRS...WITH JUST OVER 5" OF RAIN FALLING IN VERACRUZ MEXICO
DURING THIS TIME. FORTUNATELY...THE TSTM COVERAGE APPEARS TO
HAVE WANED A BIT AND THE BEST MOISTURE SUPPLY IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHUNTED FARTHER S OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS.

CARIBBEAN...
A SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF IS LOCATED BETWEEN JAMAICA
AND HAITI NEAR 18N76W AND IS DRAGGING DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR
OVER MOST OF THE NW CARIBBEAN...WHILE ENHANCING THE CONVECTION
ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER RIDGE
PROTRUDES E OF BELIZE TO JAMAICA AND THE NELY FLOW TO THE S OF
THE AXIS IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT FOR
NUMEROUS/SCATTERED TSTMS THAT HAVE BLOSSOMED OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN. FARTHER E...A SMALL-SCALE ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED JUST
S OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 17N66W PRIMARILY AS A RESPONSE TO THE
CONVECTION NEAR HISPANIOLA. THE NLY FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF THIS
FEATURE IS BRINGING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE ATLC OVER THE NRN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...PROVIDING QUITE A NICE DAY FROM GUADELOUPE NWD.

ATLANTIC...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SWINGING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST WITH A BROAD MOISTURE PLUME ADVECTING AHEAD OF IT TO THE
NE ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE N BAHAMAS. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS BAND PRIMARILY OVER
S/CNTRL FLORIDA AND FROM 25N-28N W OF 77W. AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS CENTERED ALONG 62W WITH A 1022 MB SFC HIGH NEAR
28N68W. A DIGGING UPPER TROF IS LOCATED OVER THE CNTRL ATLC
ALONG 32N43W 20N49W AND IS CAUSING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 40W-46W ALONG A SFC TROF FROM
26N49W 32N38W. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING IN FROM
THE N BEHIND THE TROF BUT IS NOT CAUSING MANY SHOWERS OR CLOUD
COVER. THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS RACING EWD FROM THE CNTRL LESSER
ANTILLES ALONG 16N50W 20N33W AND FEEDS TO THE SE OF A MID/UPPER
LOW NEAR 24N35W WHICH IS LIFTING QUICKLY TO THE NE. THE JET IS
BUILDING A STRONG RIDGE FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NWD TO THE
CANARY ISLANDS...LIMITING MUCH MOISTURE FROM ADVECTING TOWARDS
AFRICA. THE ITCZ IS QUITE LINEAR E OF 40W WITH DRY STABLE AIR
PUSHING SWD OVER THE E ATLC WATERS. SAHARAN DUST IS NOTED S OF A
LINE FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 24N40W 20N50W 22N70W.

$$
BERG


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