[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 220626
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EASTERN ATLANTIC WAVE ALONG 19W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. LITTLE TO NO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT
FOR THOSE ALREADY IN THE ITCZ.

CENTRAL ATLC WAVE ALONG 48W/49W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST
10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS LOW AMPLITUDE MOSTLY EMBEDDED IN
A BAND OF ELY TRADES NEAR THE ITCZ. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE ITCZ FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. THE TOPS OF
SOME OF THE CLOUDS IN THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION ARE BEING
SHEARED AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL RIDGE.

EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WAVE ALONG 65W/66W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING
WEST 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W...EAST OF THE
17N76W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER JUST
EAST OF JAMAICA. AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT
IN PUERTO RICO FROM THE WAVE WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING
HISPANIOLA TODAY THROUGH EASTERN CUBA...AND REACHING JAMAICA
ON THURSDAY.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 75W/76W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING
WEST 20 KT. THE WAVE IS NEAR A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 17N76W. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SW CARIBBEAN DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE WAVE HEADS QUICKLY WESTWARD.

TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 88W/89W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR...FROM 12N
TO 14N BETWEEN 88W AND 90W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND IN CENTRAL GUATEMALA.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 11N16W 10N18W...9N21W 8N30W 8N40W 9N47W...9N50W 10N60W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 9N38W 9N50W 11N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N14W 8N24W
7N30W 9N38W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS CONTINUES TO
KEEP THE GULF MOSTLY DRY SAVE FLORIDA WITH A TROUGH AXIS FROM
THE LOW FROM THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 24N90W IN THE CENTRAL
GULF.  ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH...LARGE AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND FORM INTO SHOWERS/TSTMS
NEAR AND TO THE E OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  FLOODING... ESPECIALLY IN S FLORIDA
AREAS...WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND TOMORROW
IF CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPS AS EXPECTED.  THE WET WEATHER PATTERN
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER FLORIDA WHILE
GENERALLY HOT DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE REST OF THE GULF
COAST.  ELSEWHERE... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO LOCATED AT THE TAIL END OF THE SFC TROF IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS JUST S OF JAMAICA MOVING WNW NEAR 10 KT.
A BIT OF LIFT/DIVERGENCE OF THE E SIDE OF THE LOW IS CAUSING
TSTMS NEAR AN E CARIBBEAN WAVE.  ON THE W SIDE OF THE LOW...
CONVERGENCE ALOFT LIES OVER MOST OF THE W CARIBBEAN SAVE SOME
TSTMS OVER YUCATAN AND TYPICAL ITCZ TSTMS OVER THE FAR SW
CARIBBEAN. TRADE-WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE AND SOME DIVERGENCE
ALOFT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION SOUTH
OF 13N WEST OF SOUTH AMERICA. A SURGE IN ELY TRADES SHOULD LEAD
TO AN ENHANCED SHOWER DAY IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TOMORROW WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE POSSIBLY LATE IN THE NEXT DAY CONTINUING THE
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES.  OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES AND OVER LAND DUE TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
COVERS MUCH OF THE FAR WRN ATLC...NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE
BAHAMAS. THE PLUME IS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH OVERCAST MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS BUT THERE ARE SOME EMBEDDED WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS W OF 75W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG
27N67W WITH RELATED SURFACE 1021 MB HIGH LOCATED ABOUT 215 NM
SSW OF BERMUDA. FARTHER E...A PRE-FRONTAL TROF IS ALONG 30N40W
27N47W BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE
TROF.  FARTHER S... CENTRAL ATLC MID/UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED
FROM 24N35W TO 15N46W WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FROM DISTANT TSTMS
MOVING QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE IN A WEAK SUBTROPICAL JET.  THIS
FEATURE IS SUPPRESSING THE TYPICAL AFRICAN UPPER HIGH WHICH AT
THIS POINT IN THE YEAR SHOULD BE EXTENDING FROM W AFRICA AROUND
14N-15N BUT IS FARTHER S NEAR 10N-11N E OF 40W.  IN THE W
TROPICAL ATLC... ELY GENERALLY COVER THE NE S AMERICA AND
THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM A WEAK HIGH JUST W OF GUADELOUPE....WITH
DIVERGENCE FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH AND E CARIBBEAN HIGH
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF TSTMS WITHIN THE ITCZ.  LAST VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST SOME AFRICAN DUST IS MOSTLY S OF 16N
TO THE ITCZ E OF 50W BUT IS STILL UP AROUND 20N E OF 30W. ALSO
OF NOTE IS THE VERY WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE E ATLC...WITH
MOST TRADES E OF 40W AT 10 KT OR LESS.

$$
MT


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