[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211058
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 59W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT
READY TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS ON TOP OF THE AREA THROUGH WHICH THIS WAVE IS MOVING. THE
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 14N
BETWEEN 58W AND 60W FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAVE DISAPPEARED FOR THE
MOST PART. ONE AREA OF CELLS OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS RIGHT NOW IN BETWEEN SAINT LUCIA AND SAINT VINCENT.
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS...WITH SOME
POSSIBLE SHOWERS STILL IN THE AREA...FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN
58W AND 63W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...IN AN AREA OF SURFACE WIND
SPEED SHEAR AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...ARE SEEN FROM 10N TO 16N
BETWEEN 50W AND 56W.

CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W/71W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OF A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 17N75W...PUTTING
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN FRONT OF THE
WAVE...PRODUCING SOME SHEAR AROUND THE WAVE. THE LAKE MARACAIBO
PRECIPITATION CELLS HAVE WEAKENED LEAVING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 67W AND 73W PROBABLY ARE
MORE RELATED TO THE 17N75W CYCLONIC CENTER THAN TO THIS WAVE.

WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF
THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE 17N75W CYCLONIC CENTER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THIS WAVE IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 76W AND 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CUBA AT
21N TO SOUTH FLORIDA AT 26N BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT
WATERS AT 75W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT 86W...ARE
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE 17N75W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CENTER AND THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM THE
FLORIDA-TO-SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ATLANTIC OCEAN BASED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 12N15W 7N30W 7N40W 8N50W 10N57W...10N61W 10N69W.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME CELLS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF
9N16W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N21W
7N40W...AND WITHIN 160 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N40W 7N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE COAST OF BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA AT 4N TO 10N BETWEEN
50W AND 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH NOW RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
31N77W TO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 26N86W...TO THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO MEXICO
NEAR 17N92W SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...JUST WEST OF NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN U.S.A. COAST TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S.A. TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ESSENTIALLY HAS NOT CHANGED ITS ORIENTATION.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WEST OF 80W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N75W. THE COMBINATION OF
THE DIFFERENT WIND FLOW REGIMES HAS SET UP A PATTERN WHICH HAS
BROUGHT CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA...FLORIDA SOUTH OF 28N/29N...CUBA...AND THE BAHAMAS
NORTH OF 22N WEST OF 75W/76W DURING THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM CUBA AT 21N TO SOUTH FLORIDA AT 26N BETWEEN
THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS AT 75W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AT 86W...ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE 17N75W MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER AND THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW FROM THE FLORIDA-TO-SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATLANTIC OCEAN BASED UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W...
A SECOND ONE IS ALONG 70W/71W...AND A THIRD WAVE IS ALONG 82W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...REMAINING EAST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE 17N75W CYCLONIC CENTER.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N62W...
WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERING THE ATLANTIC WATERS
NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 40W AND THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW ORIGINATING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CONTINUING INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS BEYOND 32N73W. THE FLOW STARTS TO BECOME CYCLONIC
FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PERSISTS FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 32N20W
TO 25N30W...THROUGH 22N40W TO 18N52W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC
SURFACE RIDGE RUNS THROUGH 32N29W TO 25N28W TO 20N23W. A SECOND
SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM 25N37W TO 27N53W TO 1021 MB HIGH CENTER
NEAR 29N67W TO 24N81W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 34W/35W FROM 29N TO 32N.

$$
MT



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