[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 201055
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 48W/49W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. THE MOST CURRENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING NEAR 12N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N
TO 14N BETWEEN 47W AND 55W. MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AROUND THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ.

EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 62W/63W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
END OF A TROPICAL RIDGE...WITH UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WAVE. THE TOPS OF THE CLOUDS
FOR THE ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W ARE BEING
SHEARED.

CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W/75W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE
BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
CURVES AROUND THIS TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST. THE
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W
ARE MORE PROBABLY RELATED TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 11N14W 9N20W 8N30W 9N40W 9N47W...9N50W 8N55W 8N60W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE
AFRICA COAST FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 13W AND 16W. SCATTERED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 57W
AND 60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 47W AND 55W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N16W 8N22W 7N30W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 15N BETWEEN 30W
AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH NOW RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 33N73W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO CENTRAL GUATEMALA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW FROM A MIDDLE ATLANTIC U.S.A. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
ARE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST OF 29N80W 23N90W 21N97W...WITH
COMPARATIVELY MUCH DRIER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL AIR NORTHWEST
OF THIS LINE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W SOUTH OF 14N. THIS WAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN END OF A TROPICAL RIDGE...WITH UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WAVE. THE
TOPS OF THE CLOUDS FOR THE ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W
ARE BEING SHEARED. A SECOND CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
74W/75W SOUTH OF 17N. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF
THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
CURVES AROUND THIS TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST. THE
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W
ARE MORE PROBABLY RELATED TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS...OVER
CUBA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 31N71W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 200 TO 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE RIDGE. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM GUATEMALA TO THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA. AREAS OF DEVELOPING/
WEAKENING AND RE-DEVELOPING WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM 17N TO 22N
BETWEEN 90W AND 102W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE RE-DEVELOPED FROM GUATEMALA INTO SOUTHERN BELIZE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH NOW RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 33N73W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO CENTRAL GUATEMALA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW FROM A MIDDLE ATLANTIC U.S.A. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE GULF OF HONDURAS...OVER CUBA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BEYOND 31N71W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 200 TO
250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE. ALL THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND DISSIPATING WITH
TIME...ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N71W 26N73W
24N75W 22N78W...UNDER THIS RIDGE. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ALONG 33N50W TO THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
27N61W...TO 23N69W. THIS RIDGE IS SEPARATE FROM THE ONE WHICH
RUNS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS NORTHEASTWARD. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

$$
MT




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