[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200625
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 47W/48W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 15 TO 20 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 47W AND 52W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
11N41W 15N45W TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE. PART OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AROUND THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ.

EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W/62W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
END OF A TROPICAL RIDGE...WITH UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WAVE. THE TOPS OF THE CLOUDS
FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W ARE BEING SHEARED.

CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 73W/74W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE
BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
CURVES AROUND THIS TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST. THE
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN A CURVED LINE FROM 12N TO 16N
BETWEEN 65W AND 72W ARE MORE PROBABLY RELATED TO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

TROPICAL WAVE NOW ONLY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ALONG 91W
SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM
GUATEMALA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA.
AREAS OF DEVELOPING/WEAKENING AND RE-DEVELOPING WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 15N TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
20N BETWEEN THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER NEAR 89W AND 100W IN
MEXICO.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 11N14W 9N20W 8N30W 9N40W 9N47W...9N50W 8N55W 8N60W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N14W
8N23W 7N30W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 18 TO 24 HOURS AGO HAS
DISSIPATED. A SURFACE TROUGH NOW RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC 1012 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N75W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND
SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CENTRAL GUATEMALA. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A MIDDLE ATLANTIC U.S.A. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. ALL THE CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION ARE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST OF 28N80W 23N90W
20N97W...WITH COMPARATIVELY MUCH DRIER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL AIR
NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W SOUTH OF 14N. THIS WAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN END OF A TROPICAL RIDGE...WITH UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WAVE. THE
TOPS OF THE CLOUDS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W ARE BEING
SHEARED. A SECOND CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W
SOUTH OF 17N. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE BASE
OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CURVES
AROUND THIS TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST. THE ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS IN A CURVED LINE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 65W
AND 72W ARE MORE PROBABLY RELATED TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF
HONDURAS...OVER CUBA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND
31N71W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 200 TO 250 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM GUATEMALA
TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA. AREAS OF
DEVELOPING/WEAKENING AND RE-DEVELOPING WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 15N TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
20N BETWEEN THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER NEAR 89W AND 100W IN
MEXICO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH NOW RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 32N75W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO CENTRAL GUATEMALA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW FROM A MIDDLE ATLANTIC U.S.A. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE GULF OF HONDURAS...OVER CUBA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BEYOND 31N71W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 200 TO
250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE. ALL THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
29N71W 26N73W 24N75W 22N78W...ARE UNDER THIS RIDGE. A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 33N50W TO THE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 27N61W...TO 23N69W. THIS RIDGE IS
SEPARATE FROM THE ONE WHICH RUNS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS
NORTHEASTWARD. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA.

$$
MT



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