[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191054
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 42W/43W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 KT.
CYCLONIC FLOW IN AT LEAST THE MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 42W
AND 47W.

ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 56W/57W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 KT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ ARE WEST OF THE WAVE...
FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN 57W AND 64W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND
FLOW IS CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WHICH THIS WAVE IS
MOVING.

EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 66W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF
THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS
ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THIS TROUGH WITHIN 200 TO 250 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 32N41W 23N50W 21N61W 12N65W...IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...POKING ITS WAY INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE AND/OR HAVE
BEEN FOUND FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...INDEPENDENT OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE OUTRUNNING THE 56W/57W
TROPICAL WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA ALONG 86W
SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS IN THE MIDDLE OF
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...WHICH COVERS THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO PANAMA...AND AS FAR EAST
AS 15N72W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW MAY BE AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTRAL CUBA-TO-NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN HONDURAS TO THE
MEXICO COAST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N91W.
THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...IN THE
VICINITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 12N15W 8N30W 8N40W...8N44W 8N55W...8N57W 9N64W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N14W 6N24W 6N34W...FROM 7N
TO 12N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W...FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 43W AND
50W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 11N
BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN
53W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD LARGE SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH
OF 26N EAST OF 95W...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.A.-
TO NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS PROVIDING
SUPPORT FOR THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH STRETCHES FROM A
CENTRAL SE GEORGIA COASTAL 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY NORTHWESTWARD. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
COVERS MUCH OF THE OPEN GULF WATERS...SOUTH OF 24N80W 23N92W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW MAY BE AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE CENTRAL CUBA-TO-NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W.THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA OF THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO- EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IS ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THIS TROUGH WITHIN
200 TO 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N41W 23N50W 21N61W 12N65W...
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...POKING
ITS WAY INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE AND/OR HAVE BEEN FOUND FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W
AND 70W...INDEPENDENT OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
ARE OUTRUNNING THE 56W/57W TROPICAL WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA ALONG 86W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS IN THE MIDDLE OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...WHICH COVERS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO PANAMA...AND AS FAR EAST AS
15N72W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW MAY BE AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTRAL CUBA-TO-NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM NORTHERN HONDURAS TO THE MEXICO COAST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N91W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BE
DIURNAL IN NATURE...IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. ISOLATED MODERATE

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF AN U.S.A. EAST COAST TO NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO TROUGH
EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH UPPER LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW...WHICH IS GOING AROUND A CENTRAL ATLANTIC UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 28N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH
OF 20N WEST OF 70W...FROM THE BAHAMAS NORTHWARD. THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS
SHIFTED EASTWARD NOW RUNNING FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A WEAK
SURFACE 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N28W IS THE ONLY
SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS SYSTEM. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 80W. A RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 26N70W TO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA SIDE OF WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N92W.

$$
MT



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