[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181100
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EASTERN ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 33W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST
10 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 49W/50W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING
WEST 10 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
WHICH THIS WAVE IS MOVING.

WESTERN ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 59W/60W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE
BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THIS
TROUGH IN THE AREA OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW...POKING ITS WAY INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 56W AND 62W
MAY BE ASSOCIATED MORE WITH THE TROUGH THAN WITH THE WAVE.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG ALONG 79W/80W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS IN THE MIDDLE OF CONFLICTING
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW REGIMES. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TO PANAMA...AND AS FAR EAST AS 15N80W. THE BASE OF A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CUBA AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS NOT EASY TO BE
ABLE TO FIGURE OUT IF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DIRECTLY
RELATED TO THIS WAVE. SOME SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN
JAMAICA AND CUBA...POSSIBLY MORE RELATED TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAN TO THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 12N16W 9N31W...8N34W 8N48W...8N50W 9N59W. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N15W
8N29W 8N37W 6N44W 8N53W 11N61W. THE CLOUD TOPS ARE BEING
SHEARED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS FOUND ACROSS THE
U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES...MOSTLY EAST OF 90W...IN RESPONSE
TO A DEEP LAYER TROUGH NOW ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...AND
WHOSE BASE REACHES 30N78W. A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES
FROM A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN COASTAL EASTERN GEORGIA
NEAR 32N81W...TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND EAST TEXAS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
COVERS MUCH OF THE OPEN GULF WATERS...ACCOUNTING FOR THE LACK OF
DEEP LAYER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA FROM
27N TO 31N BETWEEN 80W AND 92W...WEAKENING WITH TIME. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 23N TO 32N BETWEEN 75W
AND 80W....FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NORTHWARD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W AND THE OTHER ONE IS ALONG
79W/80W. NEITHER WAVE SEEMS TO BE ACCOUNTING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY
OF DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE BASE OF ONE  ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES NEAR
14N60W. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
25N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 14N79W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND IN THE WATERS BETWEEN
JAMAICA AND CUBA...AND BETWEEN THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND CUBA.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE PROMINENT
IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N71W
23N69W...AND ALTERNATELY WEAKENING AND RE-DEVELOPING WITHIN
60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N57W 26N65W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 80W...
INCLUDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO PANAMA. THE
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM GUATEMALA HAVE
RE-FORMED NORTHWARD ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND STILL STRETCH INTO NORTHERN
GUATEMALA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE GULF OF URABA
OF NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BASE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH...WHICH NOW IS ALONG THE U.S.A.
EAST COAST...REACHES 30N78W. THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT
STRETCHES FROM A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN COASTAL EASTERN
GEORGIA NEAR 32N81W...TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND EAST TEXAS. THE BASE OF ONE
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REACHES NEAR 14N60W. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 25N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO 14N79W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
FROM 23N TO 32N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W....FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
NORTHWARD. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE
PROMINENT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
21N71W 23N69W...AND ALTERNATELY WEAKENING AND RE-DEVELOPING
WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N57W 26N65W. SURFACE
1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N46W...WITH A TROUGH TO
29N53W. CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD FIELD ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
IS WITHIN 250 TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N61W 23N52W 31N43W.
SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 1017 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N40W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS FROM 25N TO 35N BETWEEN 24W AND 38W. SHOWER ACTIVITY
APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY FROM 28N TO 35N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W. AN
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
APPROACHING MOROCCO AND THE CANARY ISLANDS. A SURFACE 1013 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS OVER NORTHERN COASTAL MOROCCO NEAR 33N8W.

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net