[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 180555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EASTERN ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 31W/32W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 10 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 48W/49W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING
WEST 10 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
WHICH THIS WAVE IS MOVING.

WESTERN ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W/59W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE
BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THIS
TROUGH IN THE AREA OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW...POKING ITS WAY INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
NO DEEP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG ALONG 78W/79W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS IN THE MIDDLE OF CONFLICTING
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW REGIMES. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TO PANAMA...AND AS FAR EAST AS 15N80W. THE BASE OF A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CUBA AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS NOT EASY TO BE
ABLE TO FIGURE OUT IF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DIRECTLY
RELATED TO THIS WAVE. SOME SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN
JAMAICA AND CUBA...POSSIBLY MORE RELATED TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAN TO THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 12N16W 9N30W...9N34W 7N40W 8N47W...9N50W 8N54W 9N58W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N21W 6N37W
7N46W 9N58W. THE CLOUD TOPS ARE BEING SHEARED BY THE UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS FOUND ACROSS THE
U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES...MOSTLY EAST OF 90W...IN RESPONSE
TO A DEEP LAYER TROUGH NOW ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...AND
WHOSE BASE REACHES 30N78W. A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES
FROM A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
NEAR 32N80W...TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND EAST TEXAS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
COVERS MUCH OF THE OPEN GULF WATERS...ACCOUNTING FOR THE LACK
OF DEEP LAYER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA FROM
28N TO 31N BETWEEN 85W AND 92W...WEAKENING WITH TIME. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN
76W AND 80W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W AND THE OTHER ONE IS ALONG
78W/79W. NEITHER WAVE SEEMS TO BE ACCOUNTING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY
OF DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE BASE OF ONE  ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES NEAR
14N60W. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
25N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 14N79W.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND IN THE WATERS BETWEEN
JAMAICA AND CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE PROMINENT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N67W 21N70W...AND
ALTERNATELY WEAKENING AND RE-DEVELOPING WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 22N64W 27N62W 32N59W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 80W...INCLUDING FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO PANAMA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER
TO EASTERN GUATEMALA FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 89W AND 92W.
WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE WEAKENING THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BASE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH...WHICH NOW IS ALONG THE U.S.A.
EAST COAST...REACHES 30N78W. THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT
STRETCHES FROM A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA NEAR 32N80W...TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND EAST TEXAS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE IN
THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. THE
BASE OF ONE  ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REACHES NEAR 14N60W. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 25N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 14N79W. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND IN THE WATERS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE PROMINENT
IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
27N67W 21N70W...AND ALTERNATELY WEAKENING AND RE-DEVELOPING
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N64W 27N62W 32N59W. SURFACE
1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N46W...WITH A TROUGH TO
29N53W. CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD FIELD ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
IS WITHIN 250 TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N61W 23N52W 31N43W.
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 27N36W. TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO
20N45W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM 26N TO 32N
BETWEEN 26W AND 37W. SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY FROM
26N TO 30N BETWEEN 27W AND 30W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING MOROCCO AND THE CANARY
ISLANDS. A SURFACE 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS OVER NORTHERN
COASTAL MOROCCO NEAR 34N7W.

$$
MT

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