[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171916
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. BROAD
CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 28W-33W WITHIN THE ITCZ.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W S OF 12N MOVING W 10
KT. BROAD CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 43W-52W WITHIN THE
ITCZ.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION
ALONG THE ITCZ.

W ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15
KT. BROAD CURVATURE OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 51W-58W WITHIN
THE ITCZ.  CONVECTION MAY INCREASE AS THE WAVE APPROACHES A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N57W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG IS ALONG 75W S OF 18N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N12W 7N30W 8N45W 9N58W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 38W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
S OF 24N...CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 16N90W WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N80W TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N FROM 90W-95W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES
TO PUSH SE OVER THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE W ATLC E OF 91W ACROSS
FLORIDA. WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR TALLAHASSEE
AND EXTENDS WEST INTO ALABAMA...THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO BE
REINFORCED BY SHOTS OF ENERGY FROM SHORT WAVES PROPAGATING
EASTWARD. THIS CONTINUES TO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE N GULF COAST N OF 30N E OF 91W. REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
DOMINATED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH WILL CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID/UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 82W CENTERED OVER
CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 16N90W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N80W. MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...THUS
GENERATING AREAS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ALONG THE W AND E COAST OF PANAMA AND INTO SOUTHERN
COSTA RICA. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E GULF/W ATLC
CONTINUES INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER E CUBA NEAR 20N75W S
TO NEAR 15N77W. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM W CUBA
NEAR 22N83W SW TO OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N89W. MID/UPPER HIGH OVER
THE NE CARIBBEAN IS CENTERED JUST S OF E HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N69W
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N INTO THE WESTERN/ CENTRAL ATLC.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
SE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N E OF 73W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE AREA...
EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 33N78W S ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM GEORGIA/FLORIDA
BORDER NE TO NEAR 32N79W AND THEN CONTINUES WELL N OF THE AREA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING E OF THE FRONT.
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N69W TO NEAR 27N67W. AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W
OF TROUGH AXIS FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 61W-66W. SHARP MID/UPPER
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA INTO THE ATLC TO
NEAR 30N61W THEN N OF THE AREA.  DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N FROM 41W-60W. CONVECTION MAY BE ENHANCED
EAST OF LESSER ANTILLES AS A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 57W APPROACHES
THE TROUGH.  FURTHER EAST...SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N35W
THROUGH A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 27N40W TO 21N49W. OVERALL CLOUDINESS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 32W-39W.
MID/UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR 13N37W WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NE TO ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS. THIS IS UNDERCUTTING
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC FORCING IT N
OUT OF THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH
32N22W SW TO 17N42W.

$$
JP/RM



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net