[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 171043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 17 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. BROAD
CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTION
IS CONFINED TO WITHIN THE ITCZ.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W S OF 13N MOVING W 10
KT. BROAD BUT LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO
WITHIN THE ITCZ.

W ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15
KT. BROAD BUT WELL DEFINED CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO WITHIN THE ITCZ.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG IS ALONG 74W S OF 18N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 7N34W 9N50W 11N63W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
180/200 NM MOSTLY TO THE S OF THE AXIS FROM 24W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ELONGATED MID/UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE S GULF S OF 24N CENTERED
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N91W WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N82W TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. DIFFLUENCE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION INLAND OVER S
MEXICO INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N FROM 91W-95W. DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH S OVER THE E GULF INTO THE W
ATLC N OF 25N E OF 91W ACROSS FLORIDA. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDS OFF THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA COAST INLAND OVER THE NE
FLORIDA ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST TO INLAND THE
MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA BORDER WHERE IT RETURNS NW AS A STATIONARY
FRONT. THIS CONTINUES TO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE N GULF COAST N OF 27N E OF 91W. REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
DOMINATED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR AND SHOULD CONTINUE
EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
SLIDES E ONLY CLIPPING THE NE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
SEA-BREEZE INDUCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ELONGATED MID/UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 82W
CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N91W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NEAR 17N82W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR
TAMPICO. CONFLUENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS ADVECTING MOISTURE
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...THUS GENERATING AREAS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM COSTA RICA TO THE
YUCATAN...WITH SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING INTO THE
CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COASTLINE. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE E GULF/W ATLC CONTINUES INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER E
CUBA NEAR 21N77W S TO NEAR 14N77W. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM W CUBA NEAR 22N82W SW TO OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N89W.
MID/UPPER HIGH OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IS CENTERED JUST S OF E
HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N69W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N INTO THE
WESTERN/ CENTRAL ATLC. DIFFLUENCE E OF THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEVELOPED ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N
BETWEEN 76W-82W. E CARIBBEAN IS RELATIVELY CLOUD AND SHOWER
FREE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 32N77W S ACROSS
E CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG
THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA COAST INLAND OVER NE FLORIDA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING WELL E OF THE
FRONT WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 28N77W-BEYOND 32N74W. SHARP MID/UPPER
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS E HISPANIOLA INTO THE ATLC NEAR 19N69W
N TO BEYOND 32N65W. DIFFLUENCE W OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS GENERATING
AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150/175 NM OF
LINE FROM OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
BERMUDA. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 24N68W-20N64W. ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS HAD HINTED FOR THIS AREA TO HAVE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...
THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE SO FAR AS THE SURFACE IS UNDER A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH A 1015 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 25N58W.
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N FROM
41W-60W WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N44W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N34W THROUGH A 1014 MB LOW NEAR
25N43W TO 20N51W. OVERALL CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 33W-43W. MID/UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E ATLC
NEAR 16N35W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE TO ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS. THIS IS UNDERCUTTING THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT IS IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC FORCING IT N OUT OF THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH 32N22W SW TO 17N42W.

$$
WALLACE



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