[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 162351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
BROAD CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS
CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15
KT.  THIS IS A SMALL LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE.  CONVECTION IS
CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.

WESTERN ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15
KT. BROAD CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG IS ALONG 71W S OF 17N
MOVING W 10-15 KT.  CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL IS WAVE ALONG 83W/84W S OF 19N MOVING W
10-15 KT. POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION.   SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED INLAND OVER
COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN
82W-86W...AND FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 83W-88W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 7N30W 7N40W 9N60W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 13W-17W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-9N BETWEEN 21W-24W...FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 28W-32W...AND FROM
4N-9N BETWEEN 44W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N94W.
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAILS OVER THE AREA.  A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM N FLORIDA TO LOUISIANA
ALONG 31N83W 30N90W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N
FLORIDA FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 79W-83W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER LOUISIANA FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 90W-94W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 17N91W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER
THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 25N BETWEEN
85W-100W.  SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE COVERS THIS AREA.  A TROUGH IS
OVER THE NE GULF TO INCLUDE FLORIDA AND CUBA.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS OVER THE AREA EXCEPT FOR N FLORIDA WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOTED.  EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NW GULF TO DRIFT E AND THE
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE.  WINDS IN THE UPPER LEVELS
SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE.  IN ADDITION...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 75W-82W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 70W-73W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
13N79W 16N75W 20N74W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS PRODUCING THUNDERSTORM BLOWOFF TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST.  SIMILARLY THE UPPER TROUGH OVER CUBA IS
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORM BLOWOFF TOWARDS THE SOUTH.  THE E
CARIBBEAN HAS AN UPPER RIDGE E OF 74W.  THE THUNDERSTORMS E OF
JAMAICA ARE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE.  EXPECT THE
TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH THE TRADES.  THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERED IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ALMOST THE SAME FOR THE CARIBBEAN
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 23N62W.  A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 30N37W 24N45W 20N54W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.  A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC E OF 35W AND N OF 17N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W.
A RIDGE IS FURTHER E EXTENDING N FROM THE E CARIBBEAN TO BEYOND
32N60W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 15N BETWEEN
40W-55W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 17N AND E OF
40W.

$$
FORMOSA


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