[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 161741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W-25W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15
KT. BROAD CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 19W-29W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 11N MOVING W 15-20
KT.  BROAD CURVATURE OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 36W-43W.

W-CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/51W S OF 16N MOVING W
10-15 KT. A WEAK CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON  VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 45W-55W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG IS ALONG 69W S OF 17N
MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL IS WAVE ALONG 82W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15
KT. POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N10W 10N24W 8N38W 9N51W 12N70W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM OF AXIS FROM 14W-20W
AND FROM 40W-50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120NM OF
AXIS FROM50W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE SW GULF WITH A MID/UPPER
LEVEL HIGH LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. THIS IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION INLAND OVER S MEXICO
AND OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
CLIPPING THE N GULF N OF 28N NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
ASSOCIATED COLD/STATIONARY FRONT HAS SLOWLY PUSHED SOUTHWARD
OVER  THE ALABAMA FLORIDA BOARDER. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND
ASSOCIATED DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF THUS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FAR W CARIBBEAN IS UNDER N FLOW FROM THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE S
GULF CLEARING SKIES OVER THE W CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. MID/UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
22N79W WITH A UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO NEAR 12N80W...
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TOUGH ACCOMPANIES THIS UPPER TROUGH  AND
EXTENDS FROM THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO THE COAST OF
HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
E OF THE TROUGH IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. MID/UPPER
HIGH IS IN THE S CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N71W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
N ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC .  SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD INTO THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE N CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO
THE W ATLC TO THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NW TO NEAR 30N67W. SCATTERED
MODERATED CONVECTIONS EXTENDS FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN
66W-74W...GFS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A COUPLE WEAK SURFACE LOWS
MOVING NE ALONG THE AXIS. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MID/UPPER
HIGH IN THE S CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA N TO 32N69W CONTINUING
WELL N OF THE AREA.  MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE AREA FROM THE NORTH NEAR 30N46W
CONTINUING SW TO NEAR 21N58W.   A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
30N37W  SW TO NEAR 20N52W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF
THE AXIS TO NEAR 4OW. BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC
EXTENDS FROM 17N37W NE TO 32N24W.

$$
JP/DB




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