[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161053
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
BROAD CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 11N MOVING W 15-20
KT. LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE-TYPE WAVE WITH BROAD CURVATURE OBSERVED
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

W-CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 16N MOVING W
10-15 KT. NARROWING CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON THE FIRST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-15N.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG IS ALONG 68W S OF 17N MOVING W
10 KT. WEAK CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL IS WAVE ALONG 81W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15
KT. POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 16N FROM 79W-84W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 8N32W 7N41W 9N52W 10N63W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF
LINE 4N43W-6N49W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-13N
E OF 20W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA...WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS
FROM 49W-59W...WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 21W-30W...AND
WITHIN 250 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 35W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE SW GULF WITH A MID/UPPER
LEVEL HIGH LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW S OF 27N W OF 85W. THIS IS GENERATING AN AREA
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS
THE E UNITED STATES CLIPPING THE N GULF N OF 28N. ASSOCIATED
COLD/STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND OVER THE SE UNITED STATES WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
DRIFTING S INTO THE N GULF COAST FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. DRY UPPER AIR REMAINS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF THUS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FAR W CARIBBEAN IS UNDER N FLOW FROM THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE S
GULF CLEARING SKIES OVER THE W CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. MID/UPPER LOW REMAINS NOW OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
21N79W WITH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO NEAR 12N80W. A
SURFACE TOUGH ACCOMPANIES THIS UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE N
COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE INDUCED BY THE WELL
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH AND IN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A
TROPICAL WAVE FROM 15N TO THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 75W-80W.
MID/UPPER HIGH IS IN THE S CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N70W WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING N ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC. THIS HAS CLEARED
THE SKIES OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 68W. HOWEVER SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF
15N FROM 57W-60W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE N CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO
THE W ATLC TO THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. RIDGE FROM THE MID/UPPER
HIGH IN THE S CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA N TO BEYOND
32N69W. DIFFLUENCE W OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION N OF HISPANIOLA TO 26N
BETWEEN 68W-75W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL
ATLC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH N OF 20N FROM 30W-62W. AN UPPER LOW
IS DEVELOPING NEAR 25N49W. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 30N37W THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 23N51W TO 19N58W.
OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO 20N. BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS
FROM 17N37W NE TO 32N24W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE NW OF THE RIDGE AXIS
IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM
OF 23N FROM 43W-46W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE 30N31W -20N48W.
THIS IS SET UP THE SUMMER TIME TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS A LITTLE
FURTHER N THAN OVER THE PAST WEEK...ALONG 14N...THUS LIMITING
CONVECTION TO S OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

$$
WALLACE



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net