[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142318
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

WAVE ADDED OFFSHORE OF AFRICA ALONG 21W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20
KT.  THIS WAVE IS RATHER LOW-LATITUDE AND APPEARS TO BE RELATED
TO A SURGE IN THE AFRICAN ELY JET WITH LOW/MID CLOUDS MOVING
RATHER QUICKLY FROM E TO W ALONG THE N SIDE OF THE WAVE.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF 9N21N.

CENTRAL ATLC WAVE IS RELOCATED A BIT TO THE W ALONG 40W/41W S OF
15N MOVING W 15-20 KT.   VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE
THAT A V-LIKE SHAPE WAS FORMING NEAR THE WAVE AXIS WITH ANOTHER
SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST NOTED.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NEAR
THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR TRINIDAD S OF 18N
MOVING W 15 KT.  THE WAVE'S SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS
DETERIORATED SINCE YESTERDAY BUT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A
FEW TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  MOST
OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE SHUNTED NW WITH SE WINDS... MOSTLY
MISSING THE ABC ISLANDS.  `

SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WAVE ALONG 95W S OF 23N MOVING W 10
KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COAST TO
20N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND
DISSIPATING SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE MEXICO COAST JUST EAST OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 11N15W 7N25W 12N56W.  AXIS IS NOT WELL-
DEFINED W OF 40W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N E
OF 35W... MUCH REDUCED FROM YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RATHER DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS IS KEEPING MOST DIURNAL
CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM... THOUGH A FEW STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER
SE TEXAS AS A MID-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH DIPS OVER ARKANSAS.
MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE FOR TOMORROW WITH PERHAPS A FEW
MORE STORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  A SLUG OF MOISTURE FROM
THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW GULF SHOULD ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES FOR
E MEXICO S OF 25N TOMORROW.  ANOTHER HUGE ROUND OF TSTMS
DEVELOPED OVER YUCATAN TODAY...MOVING WESTWARD SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.  HOWEVER THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE MORE MORE SUPPRESSED
TOMORROW WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM A NW CARIBBEAN MID/UPPER LOW
KEEPING A LID ON CONVECTION.  WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS OVER THE N
GULF A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES S OF PENSACOLA WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS SAVE NEAR THE SW GULF TROPICAL WAVE.  A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE THU WITH WARM WLY WINDS HEATING THINGS UP
ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST... WHILE FAVORED CONVECTION IN FLORIDA
SHIFTS TO THE E COAST ON FRI WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW
FORECAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ALTHOUGH THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAS NOT GOTTEN ANY
BETTER ORGANIZED... VERY STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER HAITI ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN.  BUOY
42058 EARLIER REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 39 KT WITH A SATELLITE
SIGNATURE OBSERVED THAT COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS.  THESE TSTMS ARE FORMING AS A RESULT OF DIVERGENCE
ON THE E SIDE OF A LONG-LIVED MID/UPPER LOW JUST NW OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.  THIS LOW SHOULD NOT BE MOVING TOO QUICKLY AS IT
IS STUCK BENEATH A BUILDING MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NW ATLC S
OF THE CAROLINAS.  SURFACE TROUGH IS ALIGNED FROM ROUGHLY
JAMAICA TO THE NE TIP OF NICARAGUA WITH A 1007 MB LOW CLOSE TO
SW JAMAICA.  THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD... BRINGING
ANOTHER DAY OF HEAVY RAIN/POSSIBLE FLOODING & MUDSLIDES FOR
HISPANIOLA TOMORROW BEFORE MOVING OUT.  LINGERING MOISTURE AND
UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW A WET COUPLE OF DAYS IN
E CUBA AND JAMAICA LEADING TO VERY HEAVY RAIN... POSSIBLE
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.  UPPER RIDGING HAS BUILT INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN WITH GENERALLY DRIER WEATHER IN PLACE FOR THE SE
CARIBBEAN SAVE A FEW TSTMS IN THE WINDWARDS DUE TO A TROPICAL
WAVE.  LIGHTER-THAN-AVERAGE SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE W
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SUPPRESSED FAR TO THE NE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HIGH-OVER-LOW PATTERN IS IN THE W ATLC WITH A MID/UPPER LOW OVER
CENTRAL CUBA AND A HIGH A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES S OF THE
CAROLINAS.  SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES W OF 70W
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AREA RATHER DRY WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
FROM SW TO NE ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF A STRONG HIGH IN THE
TROPICAL ATLC.  THE SE BAHAMAS ARE LIKELY TO GET RATHER WET AS
DEEP MOISTURE AND A WEAK LOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN MOVES NORTHWARD
AND ENCOUNTERS A FAVORABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT FOR TSTMS.  SOME
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST SOME TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR NE
OF THE BAHAMAS AS RIDGING GROWS IN THE AREA.   FARTHER E... DEEP
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N48W TO 28N62W THOUGH
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL FEATURES.  SHORTWAVE IN THE SW
FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS CAUSING STRONG DIVERGENCE...FORCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 46W-51W.  A
LARGE MID/UPPER HIGH NEAR 14N54W WITH RIDGING NE TO 30N37W AND
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.  THIS RIDGE IS MUCH
FARTHER N THAN AVERAGE WITH ELY S OF 10N W OF 30W THROUGHOUT THE
DEEP TROPICS.  IN THE NE ATLC... UPPER TROUGH IS ALIGNED FROM
JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 15N32W.  UPPER RIDGING IS
GROWING SW OF SPAIN.. ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
STRENGTHEN WITH A 1022 MB CENTER NEAR 33N16W RIDGING SW TO
25N32W THEN 24N45W.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOT OF AFRICAN
DUST THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLC E OF 55W FROM THE ITCZ
NWD TO ROUGHLY 21N.

$$
BLAKE

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