[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141808
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WAVE SOUTH OF 15N ALONG 36W MOVING
WEST 10 KT. NO DISCERNIBLE RELATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WAVE GOING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ALONG 20N58W 14N59 10N60W MOVING 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
WEST OF THIS WAVE...FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 58W AND 63W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAVE ALONG 72W/73W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST
10 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF HAITI SINCE
YESTERDAY. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BE ENHANCED BY THIS WAVE.

SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WAVE ALONG 93W/94W SOUTH OF 23N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE COAST TO 20N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W. WARMING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE MEXICO
COAST JUST EAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ FROM SENEGAL NEAR 14N14W TO 8N20W 7N27W 8N34W...8N39W
7N50W 9N60W 9N64W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N11W 6N20W
7N34W...AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 7N34W 9N44W 12N56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...NORTHWEST OF
30N89W 23N98W...IN THE GULF IS IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. TO CENTRAL TEXAS...TO SOUTH-
WESTERN MEXICO NEAR 19N102W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW WITH THE ATLANTIC-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 26N EAST OF 86W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS ELSEWHERE N OF 26N EAST OF 90W. SURFACE RIDGE
FROM 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N81W ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF TO LOUISIANA AND EAST TEXAS. A WEAKENING SURFACE
TROUGH WAS OVER FLORIDA ALONG 28N81W 26N81W 24N83W...DISSIPATING
WITH TIME.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 27N70W TO A CYCLONIC CENTER OVER CUBA
NEAR 22N80W TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 11N81W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF HAITI
FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI IS AN AREA WHERE THE STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. THIS AREA WILL
BE HIT BY EVEN MORE PRECIPITATION ONCE AND IF THIS WHOLE MASS
OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE REST OF TODAY
AND POSSIBLY INTO TOMORROW MORNING. CLOUD TOPS IN THIS
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ARE REACHING 55000 FEET IN HEIGHT WITH
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES NEAR -90 CELSIUS. FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
ARE EASILY POSSIBLE IN THE PATH OF THIS BIG AREA OF STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 14N WEST
OF 75W IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH...
COVERING THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND CENTRAL AMERICA
FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO PANAMA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...COURTESY OF A TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE ROUGHLY
ALONG 15N...IS POKING ITS WAY INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...EAST OF THE TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGE THROUGH 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N20W
TO 25N36W TO 23N59W. 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N64W.
RIDGE FROM 31N64W EVENTUALLY CONNECTS TO THE 1015 MB HIGH CENTER
NEAR 29N81W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN
SEA TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 27N70W TO A CYCLONIC CENTER
OVER CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
NEAR 11N81W. SURFACE TROUGH 28N65W 24N68W 20N69W UNDER THIS
SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE ATLANTIC-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 500 NM SOUTH OF THE LINE 20N77W 24N70W 27N60W
29N50W 32N37W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN
47W AND 55W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS THROUGH NORTHERN
MOROCCO TO THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 22N27W TO 15N37W.

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net