[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131055
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST THUS LIMITING ANY
CONVECTION. WEAK LOW LEVEL TURING IS OBSERVED.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 18N MOVING W 10
KT. THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE NOW OBSCURED ANY LOW LEVEL TURNING.
ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AFRICAN DUST
THAT CROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...BROAD AREA OF CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-13N BETWEEN
47W-53W.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 KT.
WAVE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO FIND DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE THAT HAS PLAGUED THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE PAST WEEK.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W S OF 18N MOVING W 10
KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NICARAGUA/
HONDURAS AND BUILDING OVER NE GUATEMALA MOVING INTO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 9N23W 8N38W 9N56W 11N63W.
MOST CONVECTION IS CLUSTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL
WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE
COAST OF AFRICA WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 6N18W-8N12W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W GULF WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO. NARROW MID/UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT W OVER THE E
GULF EXTENDING FROM A MID/UPPER HIGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 19N90W NNE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO BEYOND 32N82W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE W ATLC IS APPROACHING THE E GULF ALONG
THE W COAST OF FLORIDA AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF
85W WITH DRY AIR...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS REMAINS. THE
MID/UPPER LOW THAT IS PRESENTLY IN THE W ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WEST AND BE OVER FLORIDA BY MID WEEK. THIS IS BRINGING
GENERAL CLEARING WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE
CARIBBEAN. ONLY OTHER POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS ACTIVITY IS
SEA-BREEZED INDUCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE CARIBBEAN.
MID/UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N90W WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO CLIP THE N CARIBBEAN N
OF 18N FROM HISPANIOLA TO W CUBA. THIS TROUGH/UPPER LOW HAS
GRADUALLY SHIFTED W AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS WILL GENERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NE CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS. GRADUALLY CLEARING IS OCCURRING OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES BUT A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50W WILL BE APPROACHING THE
ISLANDS BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY MID
WEEK. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
FOR THE TIME BEING DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF LINGERING TROPICAL
MOISTURE. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM
19N76W SW TO 12N80W WITH A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 14N75W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS TO THE E OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 13N72W-17N76W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE MID/UPPER LOW IN THE W ATLC IS CENTERED NEAR 25N68W WITH
TROUGH THAT IS PUSHING ACROSS FLORIDA THIS MORNING. A TROUGH
AXIS IS BECOMING TILTED SW/NE FROM THE LOW TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA NEAR 24N82W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 300 NM
OF THE AXIS INCLUDING THE N CARIBBEAN FROM HISPANIOLA TO W CUBA.
DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIES THIS UPPER
TROUGH LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 30N74W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO E CUBA NEAR
21N76W. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH W ACROSS WITH THE LOW
BEING OVER FLORIDA BY MID WEEK. MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A
RIDGE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC N JUST E OF THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 20N51W N TO 32N55W. AREA OF DIFFLUENCE IS
AIDING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE AREA FROM 20N-30N
BETWEEN 53W-65W WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY E OF A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N60W TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N
OF 20N E OF 45W. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
SAME AREA WITH A 1021 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 34N64W...A 1021
MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N48W...AND A 1019 MB HIGH IN
THE E ATLC...THUS NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS INVOLVED. MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TRANSVERSES THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 8N E OF 35W
THEN NE TO 13N60W. BROAD AREA OF AFRICAN DUST COVERS THE
TROPICAL ATLC S OF 22N E OF 61W...THUS LIMITING CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY E OF 35W.

$$
WALLACE




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