[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130529
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST THUS LIMITING ANY
CONVECTION. WEAK LOW LEVEL TURING IS OBSERVED.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 18N MOVING W 10 KT.
THIS IS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE WAVE THAT IS EASILY POSITION BY LOW
CLOUD CURVATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE IS ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AFRICAN DUST THAT CROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLC...AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-13N BETWEEN 47W-53W.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W S OF 16N MOVING W 10
KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO FIND DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS PLAGUED THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE PAST WEEK.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W S OF 18N MOVING W
10-15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N
NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...TO GUATEMALA MOVING SW WITH THE UPPER
FLOW.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 6N36W 9N46W 10N59W. LARGE
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF
THE AXIS FROM 35W-42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 5N44W-11N45W. CLUSTERS OF
SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF 7N E OF 24W TO INLAND
OVER AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W GULF WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO. MID/UPPER RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED FROM OVER FLORIDA TO
OVER THE W GULF EXTENDING FROM A MID/UPPER HIGH OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 20N89W NNE TO BEYOND 32N80W. DIFFLUENCE OVER THE
YUCATAN COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE E
BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THAT PRODUCED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALL BUT
DISSIPATED. THEREFORE WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERING THE
GULF AND THE DRY CONTINENTAL AIR...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS
REMAINS. THE MID/UPPER LOW THAT IS PRESENTLY IN THE W ATLC WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND BE OVER FLORIDA BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING GENERAL CLEARING WITH ONLY THE POSSIBILITY OF SEA-BREEZED
INDUCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE THAT HAS PLAGUED THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE
PAST WEEK REMAINS WITH SOME CLEARING OVER THE NW PORTION.
MID/UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N89W WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO CLIP THE N CARIBBEAN N
OF 18N FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO CENTRAL CUBA. THIS TROUGH/
UPPER LOW HAS GRADUALLY SHIFTED W OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
CONTINUING TO GENERATE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE N CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS. GRADUALLY CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES
AS THE TROUGH/LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE W GULF BY MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY DUE TO THE ABUNDANT OF LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE.
AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS E CUBA
NEAR 21N76W TO 14N78W WHERE THERE IS AN AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE
15N73W-12N79W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE MID/UPPER LOW IN THE W ATLC IS CENTERED NEAR 25N65W WITH
TROUGH THAT COVERS THE AREA INTO THE N CARIBBEAN W OF 60W TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ACCOMPANIES THIS UPPER TROUGH LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. AT
THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N74W ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TO OVER E CUBA. THIS SYSTEM WILL RETROGRADE ACROSS
FLORIDA BY MID WEEK AND INTO THE GULF. MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM A RIDGE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC N JUST E OF THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 20N53W NNW TO 32N58W. AREA OF DIFFLUENCE IS
AIDING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE AREA FROM 18N-29N
BETWEEN 55W-65W WITH THE STRONG ACTIVITY E OF A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N60W TO OVER THE N LEEWARD AND VIRGIN
ISLANDS. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC N OF 21N E OF 45W. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE SAME AREA WITH A 1021 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 29N32W
AND 1022 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 29N49W...THUS NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IS INVOLVED. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSVERSES THE
TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 8N/9N E OF 45W THEN NE TO 13N60W. BROAD AREA
OF AFRICAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 22N E OF 55W...
THUS LIMITING CONVECTION ESPECIALLY E OF 35W.

$$
WALLACE


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