[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 121815
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUNE 12 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 25W/26W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 10 KT. NEARBY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PART OF THE
ITCZ.

IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 45W/46W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. NEARBY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PART
OF THE ITCZ.

IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 65W/66W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST
OF THE WAVE ARE BEING ENHANCED MORE PROBABLY BY THE UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW AS A RESULT OF THE CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW AROUND THE 25N62W CYCLONIC CENTER AND THE BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 70W.

IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 84W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST
10 KT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN CUBA ARE BEING
ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW IN BETWEEN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW BY FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO IN THE EAST-CENTRAL TO CENTRAL GULF.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 11N15W 8N24W...8N28W 8N42W...8N48W 8N56W 10N63W. SCATTERED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 6N31W 7N39W...FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 17W AND 25W...AND FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN
20W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE TEXAS BIG BEND
AREA.  A 1001 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS NEAR 32N104W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA...WEST OF 30N85W 24N86W
22N89W. A LITTLE BIT OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW IS FOUND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS ON THE SURFACE MAP
ANALYSIS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 18N82W 16N70W 15N60W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WEST OF 63W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN ATLANTIC
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER APPROACHES FROM THE ITCZ AREA
AND COASTAL NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA IN THE SECTION EAST OF
63W SOUTH OF THE BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. ALL
THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE 25N62W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. IT IS LIKELY
THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 66W AND 77W ARE BEING
ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW BETWEEN THESE
DIFFERING SYSTEMS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 25N62W.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER REACHES TO THE FLORIDA
AND THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IT COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH
OF 20N BETWEEN 58W AND 80W. IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME OF THE
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN
53W AND 60W ARE BEING ENHANCED THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND
FLOW. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THIS CIRCULATION...WEST OF 65W. SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 29N70W
24N72W TO HAITI NEAR 19N73W. ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS
IN THE DRY AIR FROM 21N TO 28N BETWEEN 69W AND 73W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN
30W AND 58W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH
OF 32N53W 28N42W 18N29W 24N17W. AT LEAST A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ARE ROTATING THROUGH THIS WHOLE ARE OF CYCLONIC FLOW. THE BASE
OF ONE OF THE TROUGHS REACHES 32N41W. A DISSIPATING SURFACE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 33N40W TO 32N49W. SURFACE TROUGH 32N49W TO
30N64W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
32N40W 31N46W 34N57W 31N68W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW IS NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AROUND A 1025 MB CENTER
NEAR 36N64W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH RUNS THROUGH 32N32W TO 15N29W.

$$
MT

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