[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121058
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUNE 12 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT.
WEAK...LOW AMPLITUDE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS CONFINED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE REMAINS ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN AFRICAN DUST SURGE WHICH IS SUPPRESSING DEEP
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO WITHIN THE ITCZ AND S TO THE EQUATOR.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W S OF 16N MOVING W 10
KT. WAVE SIGNATURE IS OBSCURED BY UPPER LEVEL N FLOW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 E OF THE WAVE AXIS
S OF 14N.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W S OF 18N MOVING W 10 KT.
WAVE SIGNATURE IS OBSCURED BY UPPER LEVEL E FLOW ON THE S SIDE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N13W 9N21W 7N40W 8N50W 7N54W
10N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE AXIS FROM 20W-38W AND WITHIN 150/180 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
38W-43W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM THE 1N-5N BETWEEN 37W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS MOST OF THE GULF WITH THE
AXIS ALONG THE TEXAS/MEXICAN COAST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR DOMINATES THE AREA EXCEPT OVER E FLORIDA
PENINSULA. HOWEVER...THIS AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
RETREATING WESTWARD TOADY AS A LARGE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FLORIDA FROM THE EAST. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST TO INLAND
OVER S CAROLINA ARE RESULTING IN S FLOW AND ADVECTION OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N E OF 87W. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD RELATIVELY DRIER AIR OVER THE SUNSHINE STATE ON MONDAY
POSSIBLY REDUCING THE NUMBER OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS COMPRISED OF A WELL-DEFINED
MID/UPPER HIGH OVER W CUBA WITH ONE THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE
EXTENDING NNE ALONG THE FLORIDA E COAST AND A SECOND ESE TO OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. FURTHER N...A MID/UPPER LOW IS
RETROGRADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND CLIPS THE NE PORTION OF
THE AREA FROM E CUBA TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE PATTERN IS
CREATING A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE PRIMARILY N OF THE E/W RIDGE
AXIS. THE DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT COUPLED WITH AMPLE
DEEP-LAYERED TROPICAL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 15N FROM 67W-76W
WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION ALONG 70W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO N OF 16N FROM E CUBA TO OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THIS OVERALL WET PATTERN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LOW RETROGRADE SLOWLY WEST AND THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXIST OVER THE FAR W ATLC EXTENDING
FROM W CUBA NNE ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA. NARROW SWATH OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE LIES WITHIN
75/90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM OVER THE BAHAMAS W TO E FLORIDA. THIS RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO BE ERODED BY A
RETROGRADING UPPER LOW N OF PUERTO RICO NOW CENTERED NEAR
24N65W. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW/DRY AIR HAS REACHED THE
BAHAMAS AND WILL REACH THE FLORIDA E COAST BY TONIGHT. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N69W ACROSS E CUBA TO 18N76W. SE OF THE
UPPER LOW...A STRONGLY DIFFLUENT PATTERN COUPLED WITH AMPLE
DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ITCZ
AXIS TO 26N BETWEEN 52W-58W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 58W-65W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 40W...THUS RESULTING IN NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
IS MOSTLY N OF THE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF
50W. OVER THE E ATLC...AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS E OF 45W FROM THE
ITCZ NWD TO ROUGHLY 20N THUS CONFINING CONVECTION TO CLOSE TO
THE ITCZ AXIS.

$$
WALLACE



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