[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 110326
HLSTAE

GMZ750-755-770-775-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-110700-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1123 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005

...A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PASCAGOULA TO DESTIN...
...A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS
FLORIDA...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FROM GRANDE ISLE LOUISIANA TO
STEINHATCHEE FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE INCLUDING WALTON...BAY...GULF...
FRANKLIN...WAKULLA...JEFFERSON...AND TAYLOR COUNTIES.

...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM DESTIN
EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND COASTAL COUNTIES EASTWARD TO
STEINHATCHEE. A FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT BECAUSE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM EDT...10 PM CDT...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS CENTERED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.1 DEGREES NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 DEGREES WEST. THIS IS
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 989 MB...OR 29.21 INCHES. ARLENE WAS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN FORWARD SPEED. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE REMAIN NEAR 70
MPH. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS
AND ARLENE COULD REACH CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE CENTER OF ARLENE IS
FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI COAST
TO PENSACOLA EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT INCLEMENT WEATHER...IN THE FORM OF HEAVY RAINS AND
STRONG WINDS...WILL OCCUR TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

...WIND IMPACTS...
ALONG THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH COULD REACH THE PANHANDLE COAST...FROM ST.
GEORGE ISLAND WESTWARD BY SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS COULD
BE HIGHER AND EXTEND FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE
BIG BEND SHOULD ARLENE MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK. WINDS GUSTING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE HAVE ALREADY
REACHED THE BUOYS 60 TO 70 NM OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHWARD DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME AREA WINDS AS OF 11 PM EDT ARE AS
FOLLOWS:

TALLAHASSEE: EAST AT 12 MPH.

PANAMA CITY: EAST AT 16 MPH.

APALACHICOLA: NORTHEAST AT 14 MPH.

KEATON BEACH: NORTHEAST AT 16 MPH.

CEDAR KEY: EAST AT 25 MPH.

C TOWER 100 FT ABOVE MSL: 38 MPH GUSTING TO 42 MPH.

APALACHICOLA BUOY: 33 MPH GUSTING TO 47 MPH.

PANAMA CITY BUOY: 36 MPH GUSTING TO 43 MPH.

...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION...
EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF ARLENE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL TO
OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE OR SO...A LARGE SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE LIKELY TO THE EAST...ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLE...MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND...AND INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED 10 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
IF THE STORM FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...THE STORM SURGE WILL BE
ABOUT 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE SOUTH WALTON BEACHES...AND 2 TO 4 FEET
FURTHER EASTWARD ACROSS BAY...GULF AND WAKULLA COUNTIES. THE TAYLOR
COUNTY COAST SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY LOWER STORM TIDES...OF 1 TO 2 FEET.
SOME BEACH EROSION WILL OCCUR IN VULNERABLE LOCATIONS INCLUDING CAPE
SAN BLAS DUE TO HEAVY WAVE ACTION.  IF ARLENE INTENSIFIES AND MAKES
LANDFALL FARTHER EAST IN THE WATCH AREA...THEN THE STORM SURGE COULD
BE EVEN HIGHER...MAINLY FROM PANAMA CITY WESTWARD. CURRENTLY TIDES
ARE RUNNING A FOOT OR LESS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST.

NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AND COULD ADD TO THE STORM TIDE LEVELS
SPECIFIC TIDE FORECASTS FOLLOWS...

ST MARKS...
TONIGHT: LOW 11:44 PM
SATURDAY: HIGH 6:20 AM...LOW 11:11 AM EDT

APALACHICOLA...
SATURDAY: LOW 1:46 AM EDT...HIGH 9:26 AM EDT...LOW 1:30 PM EDT

PORT ST JOE...
TONIGHT: LOW 11:53 PM
SATURDAY: HIGH 1:12 PM

SAINT ANDREW BAY AT PANAMA CITY...
TODAY: LOW 11:33 PM.
SATURDAY: HIGH 12:39 PM...LOW 11:53 PM.

...RIP CURRENTS...
ONSHORE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CREATE A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH SATURDAY.

...TORNADO THREAT...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE A POSSIBILITY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS
ARLENE APPROACHES THE GULF COAST.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE NEAR COMPLETION WITH THE APPROACH OF ARLENE
IMMINENT. STORE LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS TRASH CANS OR YARD FURNITURE.
POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR DUE TO STRONG WIND GUSTS. STOCK UP ON
BATTERIES...FLASHLIGHTS... WATER...AND NON-PERISHABLE FOOD. HAVE
CASH ON HAND...AS CREDIT CARDS AND ATM MACHINES MAY NOT WORK WITHOUT
POWER. BOATS SHOULD BE MOVED TO A SAFE LOCATION OR SECURED PROPERLY.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 230 AM EDT (130 AM CDT) THIS MORNING.

$$

17-GOULD
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