[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUNE 10 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE CENTER NEAR 26.4N 85.6W AT 11/0000 UTC...
OR ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER  MOVING N-NW 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 60 KT
GUSTING TO 70 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC AND/OR MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 FOR MORE DETAILS.  ARLENE IS
INTENSIFYING ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN.  AN UPPER LOW IS SW OF THE LOW'S POSITION...
GENERALLY A FAVORABLE SPOT FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH MORE OF A
SSE FLOW AFFECTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE RATHER THAN SW.  SOME
DRY AIR ALOFT IS RATHER CLOSE TO ARLENE'S CENTER AND COULD
IMPEDE DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER THE CYCLONE IS CLOSE TO HURRICANE
STRENGTH AND IT STILL HAS ABOUT A DAY TO INTENSIFY BEFORE
STRIKING LAND.  HEAVY RAINS ARE AFFECTING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
WITH RADAR INDICATING 3-5 INCHES OVER A SWATH IN S FLORIDA.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW WITHIN 60 NM OF
26.5N85.5W

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 37W/38W S OF 18N MOVING W 10
KT.  WAVE IS MARKED BY AN INCREASE IN LOW/MID CLOUDINESS AND
CYCLONIC CURVATURE.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE WAVE OUTSIDE
OF A FEW TSTMS IN THE ITCZ.

W ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ADDED ALONG 55W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
LONG-TERM SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST THE WAVE'S EXISTENCE AND IS
FURTHER CONFIRMED BY A NORTHWARD BULGE IN THE ITCZ AND NEARBY
TSTMS.

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W S OF 18N MOVING W 10 TO 15
KT.  STRONG NLY UPPER FLOW OVER THE AREA IS MASKING THE WAVE'S
POSITION BUT THERE IS SOME HINT IN THE LOW CLOUDS THAT COULD BE
THE WAVE'S LOCATION.  WAVE IS LIKELY ENHANCING TSTMS OVER NW
COLOMBIA BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OVER WATER.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 11N15W 4N27W 8N55W 9N61W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 35W-55W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE
7N17W 3N29W 5N35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ARLENE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PICTURE E OF 90W WITH OVERCAST
MULTI-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/FEW TSTMS COVERING THE
AREA E OF 88W N OF 25N.  THE STORM IS MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN
BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS OVER THE SE USA AND AN UPPER TROUGH FROM
25N90W TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA.  A WET PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER FLORIDA WITH A MOIST SLY FETCH FROM
THE CARIBBEAN.  OTHER THAN ARLENE IN THE EASTERN GULF...PLEASANT
WEATHER COVERS THE W GULF WITH DRY AIR ALOFT KEEPING THE AREA
MOSTLY PRECIPITATION-FREE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE E CARIBBEAN WITH
DIVERGENT FLOW FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE W ATLC COMBINING WITH
TROPICAL WAVES/MOISTURE CAUSING HEAVY RAIN IN THE GREATER
ANTILLES E OF CUBA THRU THE LESSER ANTILLES N OF 15N.  THE W
CARIBBEAN HAS A LARGE MID/UPPER HIGH NEAR 17N80W WITH ELY FLOW
ABOVE 500 MB.  MOIST SW FLOW CONTINUES IN THE LOW LEVELS OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAINS TO THE ATYPICAL
WESTWARD SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES.  A WET WEEKEND IS LIKELY
FOR THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WITH PLENTY OF UPPER SUPPORT AND
DEEP-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING IN FROM THE E TO PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR RAIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA HAS A LOT OF BROKEN MULTI-LAYERED
CLOUDS W OF 70W WITH RAIN OVER AND W OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG 77W WITH A DEEP MID/UPPER
LOW NEAR 26N62W SETTLING SOUTHWARD.  THIS LOW IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER FROM 12N-22N BETWEEN 50W-65W
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGHOUT THE AREA.  THE
HEAVIEST TSTMS ARE NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE WITHIN 90 NM OF 13N55W.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
LIKELY BRINGING HEAVY RAINS THROUGHOUT THE E CARIBBEAN MOSTLY N
OF 13N.  THE GFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SOME SORT OF LOW WILL
DEVELOP SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NE OF PUERTO RICO FROM THE
INTERACTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WITH THE UPPER LOW... BUT IT IS
NOT WELL-SUPPORTED BY OTHER GUIDANCE OR ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
REGARDLESS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK WITH
LOWER-THAN-AVERAGE PRESSURES AND A BIT BELOW AVERAGE TRADES.  IN
THE NE ATLC... GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS THE RULE WITH A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS.  FARTHER S... MID/UPPER
RIDGING LIES ALONG 11/12N E OF 50W IN THE BASIN WITH ELY WINDS
SUPPORTING A FEW TSTMS IN THE ITCZ.

$$
BLAKE

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