[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101814
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUNE 10 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE CENTER NEAR 25.0N 85.0W AT 10/1800 UTC...
OR ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA...
MOVING NORTH 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 50 KT GUSTS
60 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
AND/OR MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 FOR MORE DETAILS. ARLENE HAS
STRENGTHENED WHILE ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING. ARLENE MAY STRENGTHEN A
LITTLE MORE BEFORE LANDFALL...AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL
WHICH FORECASTS 60 KT IN 24 HOURS. ARLENE MAY REACH THE COAST
AS A MINIMAL HURRICANE. ARLENE HAS BEEN CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH A POORLY-DEFINED CENTER. SEVERAL CENTERS HAVE
BEEN ROTATING AROUND THE MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
POSITION...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT RELOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...IS BASED UPON A MEAN OF THE VARIOUS SMALLER
CIRCULATIONS. ARLENE STILL IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST ABOUT 14 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ONE AREA
FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND
FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. OTHER WIDESPREAD RAIN
COVERS CUBA FROM 20N TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 78W AND 85W. MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND MORE RAIN COVER THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA NORTH OF 26N EAST OF 88W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 35W/36W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 KT.
ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W/77W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W EASILY MAY
NOT BE RELATED TO THIS WAVE. ALL THIS IS OCCURRING UNDER LARGE
SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL NICARAGUA COAST MAY BE RELATED
TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN CUBA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND WESTWARD
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IN AN AREA OF SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW AND THE PRESENCE OF THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 12N16W 7N25W 7N33W...7N38W 8N50W 9N61W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N13W 5N20W...AND WITHIN
50 TO 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N25W 3N30W 4N35W 6N43W 5N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF WATERS WEST OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS
IN THE GULF EAST OF 90W...AS TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DOMINATES
EVERYTHING EAST OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TOWARD THE GREATER ANTILLES.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.
BROAD LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW PREVAILS
EVERYWHERE. DUG ITS WAY INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. TROPICAL
WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W SOUTH OF 18N. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE EAST OF 70W IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
WIND FLOW AT THE BREAKPOINT BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND THE
CYCLONIC FLOW BEING DRAWN TOWARD THE ATLANTIC TROUGH. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN WESTERN CUBA FROM TROPICAL STORM ARLENE.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR NICARAGUA MAY BE RELATED TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN CUBA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
ARE NEAR THE ITCZ AND IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND
FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAD DEEPENED INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS MOVED
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ITS BASE IS NEAR 10N55W...
RUNNING NORTHWARD TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 27N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 15N TO 22N
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCENTRATED FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 51W
AND 56W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH GOES FROM
10N TO 32N BETWEEN 55W AND THE GREATER ANTILLES AND 70W. 1017 MB
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N61W...UNDER THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM
THE LOW CENTER TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM
18N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND AT LEAST 50W. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS THROUGH 32N18W TO 25N23W TO 12N34W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS FROM 10N TO 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND AT LEAST 35W. NO DEEP
LAYER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

$$
MT


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