[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101223
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE CENTER NEAR 22.6N 84.8W OR 50 MILES/80 KM
NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST
10 MPH. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 55 MPH/90 KM PER HOUR. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
AND/OR MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE SW OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. THE OUTER MOST RAINBAND CONSISTS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 15N86W-17N82W CONTINUING FROM 18N80W
TO OVER CUBA NEAR 22N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 78W-85W
INCLUDING W CUBA AND S FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED N TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COVERING ALL
BUT THE NE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD
AS ARLENE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO SHORTLY. SHOWER ACTIVITY
COULD CONTINUE OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA UNTIL AFTER ARLENE
MAKES LANDFALL ON THE N GULF COAST THIS WEEKEND DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 15N MOVING
W 5-10 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING E/W ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. WEAK SIGNATURE CURVATURE
IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WAVE APPEARS TO
BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF YET ANOTHER WAVE OF AFRICAN DUST THUS
LIMITING CONVECTION.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W WITH THE EXTREME N
PORTION TILTS EASTWARD OVER HAITI MOVING W 5-10 KT. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA LITTLE CONVECTION DIRECTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 7N23W 6N41W 9N53W 9N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
COAST OF GUINEA FROM 8N-10N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 4N FROM 28W-32W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 31W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
PERSISTENT MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE GULF EXTENDING
CENTRAL LOUISIANA S TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE. MID/UPPER HIGH IN
THE W CARIBBEAN REMAINS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NOW RETROGRADING W
TO ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA. WEAK SUBTROPICAL JET THAT RUNS
FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL N ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO
THE W ATLC IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM T.S. ARLENE N
OVER FLORIDA THEN INTO THE W ATLC. DIFFLUENCE OVER THE FAR E
GULF AND FLORIDA IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
ARLENE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS QUIET WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR COVERING THE GULF W OF 87W.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS ARLENE MOVES
INTO THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
CARIBBEAN REMAINS ACTIVE AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH T.S. ARLENE
EXITING THE NW CARIBBEAN...A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING OVER PUERTO RICO INTO
THE NE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
SE OF ARLENE NEAR 17N80W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N ACROSS CUBA
INTO THE W ATLC ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST. WEAKENING MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC JUST
SKIRTING THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH FROM A LOW IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO 17N70W. ABUNDANT
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM
13N-19N BETWEEN 60W-66W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N
OF 15N FROM 66W-72W...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 10N TO OVER
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA BETWEEN 76W-79W AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF COSTA RICA S OF 10.5N.

ATLANTIC...
SHARPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W
CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NW OVER THE
BAHAMAS TO 32N79W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW W OF 70W. THIS IS
ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N55W WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW N OF 18N BETWEEN 52W-66W CLIPPING THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS. AT
THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL SWIRL REMAINS WITH A 1017 MB
LOW ANALYZED SW OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR 27N60W AND A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE N CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 22N BETWEEN 60W AND THE
SURFACE TROUGH. BUILDING RIDGE IS TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WITH DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 16N57W TO 26N53W AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN
50W-59W. SECOND MID/UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N21W SW TO A BASE NEAR 16N32W. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM AN UPPER HIGH OFF THE
COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 10N19W W TO 12N53W. WAVE OF AFRICAN DUST
COVERS THE E ATLC FROM 10N-20N E OF 30W INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...THUS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ.

$$
WALLACE








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