[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 100535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE IS CENTERED NEAR 20.8N 84.3W OR ABOUT 75
MILES SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MOVING N AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUST TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. THE LEVEL CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE SW OF THE
MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION EXTENDS WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM 17N82W TO 22N82W
AND OVER W CUBA FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 81W-84W MOVING INTO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALREADY MOVED ACROSS THE STRAITS TO OVER S FLORIDA AND THE
N BAHAMA ISLANDS COVERING THE AREA FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE S
BETWEEN 76W-84W AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD AS ARLENE
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY
COULD CONTINUE OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA UNTIL AFTER ARLENE
MAKES LANDFALL ON THE N GULF COAST THIS WEEKEND DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 15N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING E/W ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. WEAK
SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W WITH THE
EXTREME N PORTION TILTS EASTWARD OVER HAITI MOVING W 10-15 KT.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS WITH NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA/NE COLOMBIA TO OVER LAKE MARACAIBO.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 68W-75W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 7N26W 6N38W 8N50W 10N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE
FROM 2N27W-5N30W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 24W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT COVERED MEXICO AND THE W GULF HAS
RETROGRADED TO THE W GULF COAST. THE PERSISTENT SHARP MID/UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE GULF BUT HAS BROADEN OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS EXTENDING LOUISIANA S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MID/UPPER
HIGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN REMAINS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NOW
RETROGRADING W TO ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA. WEAK SUBTROPICAL
JET THAT RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL N THEN E ACROSS THE NE
FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM T.S.
ARLENE N ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE W ATLC. DIFFLUENCE OVER THE
FAR E GULF AND FLORIDA IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF ARLENE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS QUIET WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR COVERING THE GULF W OF
88W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS ARLENE MOVES INTO THE
GULF THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN...
CARIBBEAN REMAINS ACTIVE AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH T.S. ARLENE IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN...A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE THE N
LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS NEAR 16N80W WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING N ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W ATLC ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.
WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC JUST SKIRTING THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS. A SURFACE
TROUGH FROM A LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS TO OVER THE N
LEEWARD ISLANDS. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERING
THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 60W-66W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS S OF 17N TO OVER NE HONDURAS FROM 83W-85W.

ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS E
CUBA ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA TO 32N80W WITH ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW W OF 69W. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
29N55W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW N OF 18N BETWEEN 52W-66W CLIPPING THE
N LEEWARD ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL SWIRL
REMAINS WITH A 1016 MB LOW ANALYZED SW OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR
27N59W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SSW TO OVER THE N LEEWARD
ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 23N BETWEEN
57W-65W. BUILDING RIDGE IS TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH
DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION S OF 25N TO THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 51W-58W. SECOND
MID/UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N23W SW TO
A BASE NEAR 16N30W. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS
THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM AN UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA
NEAR 10N21W W TO 12N53W THUS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITHIN THE
ITCZ.

$$
WALLACE






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