[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 091147
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005

SHIP 3FFL8 REPORTED 40 KT WINDS WHILE LOCATED ABOUT 130 N MI
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE.  A QUALITY
CONTROL CHECK BY THE OCEAN PREDICITON CENTER SUGGESTED THIS REPORT
WAS ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH...BUT STILL OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE.  BASED
ON THIS A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPGRADE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE TO TROPICAL STORM ARLENE.

THE SHIP REPORT REQUIRES A 130 N MI WIND RADIUS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT...WHICH IS CARRIED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE
EXPANDED WIND RADIUS REQUIRES THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN CUBA TO
BE EXTENDED EASTWARD.  THERE ARE NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      09/1200Z 19.1N  84.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     09/1800Z 20.0N  84.2W    35 KT
 24HR VT     10/0600Z 22.2N  84.8W    40 KT
 36HR VT     10/1800Z 24.7N  85.8W    45 KT
 48HR VT     11/0600Z 27.2N  87.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     12/0600Z 31.5N  88.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     13/0600Z 36.5N  87.0W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
120HR VT     14/0600Z...DISSIPATED


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