[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090541 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005

...CORRECTION FOR UPDATED T.D. ONE POSITION...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS CENTERED NEAR 17.8N 83.9W OR ABOUT
205 MILES WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN AT 09/0600 UTC MOVING N AT 5 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUST TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS TO THE S OF THE CENTER WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM
INLAND OVER NICARAGUA NEAR 14N87W TO THE COAST NEAR 15N83W TO
16N81W IN THE W CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION COVER THE AREA MAINLY TO THE E OF THE CENTER FROM
14N-22N BETWEEN 78W-84W. THIS CONVECTION IS APPROACHING THE S
COAST OF CUBA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 30W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING E/W ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC...THUS THE SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSCURED WITH NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO NEAR
18N66W ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER S AMERICA NEAR
4N70W MOVING W 10-15 KT. DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND MID/HIGH
CLOUDS THE SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSCURED. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 85W/86W S OF 15N MOVING
W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GENERATING THE STRONG CONVECTION INLAND OVER NICARAGUA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 8N22W 9N31W 8N42W 10N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM 6N14W-4N20W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150
NM OF THE AXIS E OF 27W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE AXIS FROM 27W-53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF 5N FROM 21W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH...CENTERED OFF THE SW COAST OF MEXICO IN
THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS ALL OVER MEXICO INTO THE W GULF W OF
92W. SHARP MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN THE E GULF FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE S TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MID/UPPER
HIGH IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS
CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. THIS ALONG WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET THAT
RUNS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS N THEN E ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLC IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE N ACROSS CUBA INTO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND OVER S FLORIDA. THIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE E
GULF S OF 29N E OF 84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS QUIET WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR COVERING THE GULF W OF
89W.

CARIBBEAN...
CARIBBEAN REMAINS ACTIVE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH TWO TROPICAL WAVES
AND THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA NEAR 14N81W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N ACROSS CUBA INTO
THE W ATLC. WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN ATLC JUST SKIRTING THE GREATER ANTILLES ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH A SECOND UPPER RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM E VENEZUELA NE ACROSS THE W TROPICAL ATLC.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH TWO AREAS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OF NOTE. ONE...N OF 14N TO OVER
HISPANIOLA FROM 69W-75W AND THE SECOND OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES
FROM WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 14N63W-18N56W. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION.

ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W
CARIBBEAN CONTINUES ACROSS THE W ATLC ACROSS E CUBA TO 33N76W
WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW W OF 68W. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N55W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW N OF 19N BETWEEN
48W-67W. CLIPPING THE PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. AT THE
SURFACE...A LOW LEVEL SWIRL REMAINS WITH A 1013 MB LOW ANALYZED
S OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR 25N56W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N51W
TO 20N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 28N
TO THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 50W-60W. SECOND MID/UPPER TROUGH IS IN
THE EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N30W SW TO A BASE
NEAR 15N39W WITH A COLD FRONT SKIRTING THE N PORTION OF THE AREA
FROM 32N39W TO 31N40W WHERE IT CONTINUES NW AS A STATIONARY
FRONT OUT OF THE REGION NEAR 32N45W. THIS HAS SPLIT THE TYPICAL
SUMMER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLC FROM INLAND OVER AFRICA NEAR 11N15W TO 9N37W.

$$
WALLACE



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