[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED 08 JUNE 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 84.0W AT 09/0000
UTC OR ABOUT 215 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN MOVING NORTH AT
6 KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.  SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PRESENTLY CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM
14N-21N BETWEEN 79W-84W.  HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCOMPANIED BY
SQUALLS...SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND
WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST ABOUT 10 KT.
CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W S OF 18N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-17N
BETWEEN 63W-68W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 84W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.  THE WAVE IS JUST S OF T.D. ONE.  PATCHES
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
8N-15N BETWEEN 83W-86W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 8N20W 10N29W 8N50W 10N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 11W-18W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 18W-52W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM
13N-18N BETWEEN 57W-62W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 29N87W.  SURFACE WINDS ARE ANTICYCLONIC AT 10-15 KT.
MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE W OF 86W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS
ARE W OF 86W TO INCLUDE FLORIDA.  RADAR SHOWS PATCHES OF
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER W FLORIDA FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN
81W-84W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP TROUGH IS OVER THE W
GULF N OF 15N BETWEEN 87W-100W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THIS
AREA.  RIDGING WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN
COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 87W.  EXPECT T.D. ONE TO EFFECT
THE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE ABOVE ABOUT T.D. ONE AND THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES IN THE
CARIBBEAN.  IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 5N-12N
BETWEEN 70W-78W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE.  EXPECT THE
TROPICAL WAVES TO PROCEED W WHILE T.D. ONE MOVES N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N66W.  A WEAK 1013
MB LOW IS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N55W.  A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS N TO 30N50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 51W-56W.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOMINATES
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N AND E OF 45W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
RIDGING IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 65W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS CENTERED NEAR 29N54W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN
45W-65W.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER W AFRICA
NEAR 12N10W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W OVER THE TROPICS TO
10N50W.

$$
FORMOSA


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