[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081038
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 08 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
1004 MB LOW CENTERED OVER THE TIP OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N ACROSS THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND W CUBA
TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N82W. BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNW TOWARD THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL WERE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL FORMATION LATER IN THE WEEK.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 26W/27W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION S OF THE ITCZ IS BEING ENHANCED
BY THIS WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 20N62W ACROSS
THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS INLAND OVER S AMERICA NEAR 10N65W TO 5N65W
MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONVECTION IS
DISPLACED WELL TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
9N54W-18N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W/81W S OF 17N MOVING W
10 KT. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...MAKING THE EXACT LOCATION
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IN THE CARIBBEAN...BUT IS OBSERVED ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY S OF PANAMA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N10W 8N17W 6N23W 8N32W 7N47W
11N64W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH...CENTERED OFF THE SW COAST OF MEXICO IN
THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS ALL OVER MEXICO INTO THE W GULF W OF
92W. SHARP MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN THE E GULF FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO OVER W YUCATAN PENINSULA. HIGH AMPLITUDE
MID/UPPER HIGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET
RUNS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS N THEN E ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLC. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE N
ACROSS CUBA INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND S FLORIDA. THIS
MOISTURE WILL AGAIN BE ENHANCED THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
RELATIVELY QUIET WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR
COVERING THE GULF W OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN...
CARIBBEAN REMAINS ACTIVE THIS MORNING WITH TWO TROPICAL WAVES
AND THE LOW/TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AMERICA/W CARIBBEAN. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR
12N84W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NNE ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W
ATLC. WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN ATLC ACROSS E HISPANIOLA/PUERTO RICO TO 14N68W
WITH A SECOND UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM E VENEZUELA NE
ACROSS THE W TROPICAL ATLC. AN AREA SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS W CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-21N BETWEEN 77W-85W.
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE S OF 15N TO OVER THE ABC
ISLANDS BETWEEN 66W-73W AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA W OF 75W TO E PANAMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE ENTIRE
AREA HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WITH THE STRONGEST RAINS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
FROM OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO OVER W CUBA...WHERE THE LOW/SURFACE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W
CARIBBEAN CONTINUES ACROSS THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA TO 32N75W WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW W OF 67W. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 28N56W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW N OF 23N BETWEEN 47W-67W
WITH A WEAK TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
ACROSS E HISPANIOLA/PUERTO RICO. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW LEVEL
SWIRL...1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED TO THE S OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR
23N55W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO 29N49W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150/175 NM OF A LINE
FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N59W NE TO 29N49W. SECOND WEAK
MID/UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLC EXTEND THROUGH
32N36W SW TO A BASE NEAR 16N40W WITH NO SURFACE FEATURES.
TYPICAL SUMMER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM INLAND
OVER AFRICA ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM OVER SENEGAL ALONG
10N28W TO NEAR 8N39W. THIS IS KEEPING THE ITCZ ACTIVE.

$$
WALLACE



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