[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 08 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
1004 MB LOW CENTERED OVER HONDURAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING N TO THE ISLE OF YOUTH OFF THE CUBA COAST. BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE N TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
WERE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
FORMATION LATER IN THE WEEK.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 25W/26W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT. LOW
LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION S OF THE ITCZ. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF 5N22.5W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 19N59W ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INLAND OVER S AMERICA NEAR 10N63W TO 3N64W
MOVING 15-20 KT. DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONVECTION IS
DISPLACED TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 18N55W-14N58W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM
13N-19N BETWEEN 58W-67W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 79W/80W S OF 19N MOVING W
15 KT. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER HONDURAS
AND THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...MAKING THE EXACT LOCATION
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE. POSITION BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 9N27W 7N41W 11N61W.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND...MOVING INTO THE
E ATLC...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF AFRICA WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE AXIS FROM 34W-39W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 250 NM OF THE
AXIS FROM 41W-56W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF 6N FROM 11W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH...CENTERED OFF THE W COAST OF MEXICO IN
THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS ALL OVER MEXICO INTO THE W GULF W OF
91W. SHARP MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN THE E GULF FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE. HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER HIGH IN THE
W CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET RUNS FROM THE GULF OF
HONDURAS N THEN E ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. THIS IS
ADVECTING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS CUBA INTO THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA AND S FLORIDA. THIS MOISTURE ENHANCED THE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF IS RELATIVELY QUIET WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR COVERING THE GULF W OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN...
CARIBBEAN REMAINS ACTIVE TONIGHT WITH TWO TROPICAL WAVES AND THE
LOW/TROUGH OVER HONDURAS AND THE W CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR
13N84W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W ATLC.
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL/WESTERN ATLC
ACROSS HISPANIOLA/PUERTO RICO TO JUST N OF THE ABC ISLANDS WITH
A SECOND UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM E VENEZUELA NE ACROSS
THE W TROPICAL ATLC. AN AREA SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS W CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 12N-21N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE ENTIRE AREA HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE
STRONGEST RAINS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA TO OVER W CUBA...WHERE THE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W
CARIBBEAN CONTINUES ACROSS THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA TO 33N74W WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW W OF 67W. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 28N56W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW N OF 24N BETWEEN 50W-67W
WITH A WEAK TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
ACROSS HISPANIOLA/PUERTO RICO. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK 1012 MB LOW
IS CENTERED TO THE S OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR 23N54W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO 27N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE LOW/TROUGH S OF 25N.
SECOND WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLC
EXTEND THROUGH 32N36W SW TO A BASE NEAR 13N43W WITH NO SURFACE
FEATURES. TYPICAL SUMMER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
INLAND OVER AFRICA ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM OVER SENEGAL
ALONG 10N30W TO NEAR 7N41W. THIS IS KEEPING THE ITCZ ACTIVE.

$$
WALLACE




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