[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 22W/23W SOUTH OF
14N MOVING WEST AT AN ESTIMATED SPEED OF 10 KT. THE WAVE
STRUCTURE CONTINUES TO BE COMPLEX WITH A LARGE CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE.  HOWEVER...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS
TIME.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.  THERE IS LITTLE OR NO SATELLITE SIGNATURE
AND THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY ON EXTRAPOLATION
AND THE 0000 UTC CAYENNE SOUNDING WHICH DID NOT INDICATE WAVE
PASSAGE.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST 10-15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HAITI.  THIS INTERACTION IS PRODUCING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE
CENTRAL TO E CARIBBEAN. CURRENTLY...THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS
OVER THE S CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 65W-74W INCLUDING THE ABC
ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER S MEXICO ALONG 93W/94 SOUTH OF 17N MOVING
WEST 10-15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA BUT
A PIECE OF ITS ENERGY APPEARS TO HAVE SPLIT AND IS MOVING SLOWLY
NW OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. AS A RESULT...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
FROM THE WAVE IS LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WHICH IS
AIDING EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND ABOVE AVERAGE SHOWERS/TSTMS.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 13N10W 7N40W 10N60W...THEN ACROSS N
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA.  SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 30W-45W.

.DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ONCE AGAIN BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE CENTRAL GLFMEX AND WILL BE THE KEY PLAYER IN THE
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT REMAINS ESSENTIALLY
STATIONARY ALONG 90W. IN A PATTERN REMINISCENT TO LAST
WEEK...DEEP-LAYERED SLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH IS
ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD FROM THE W CARIBBEAN.  WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVERSPREADING
THE S HALF OF FLORIDA.  AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL CLOSE LOW FORMS NEAR 26N87W.  BOTTOM
LINE...UNSETTLED/WET WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
FLORIDA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  AT THE
SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE N GULF COAST
PRODUCING ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  THE
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO START TIGHTENING BEGINNING WED AS A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN/YUCATAN
PENINSULA.  OVER THE W GLFMEX...THE ESTABLISHED UPPER TROF IS
PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT W OF 90W
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS RESULTING IN
RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER.  THE ONE CAVEAT...SHOWERS/TSTMS AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PROPAGATING SWD FROM THE S UNITED STATES MAY
AFFECT THE N GULF COAST AS IS CURRENTLY HAPPENING OFF LOUISIANA.

CARIBBEAN...
A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH TWO
IMPRESSIVE AREAS OF CONVECTION.  OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...A
MONSOONAL-LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE E PACIFIC WITH
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW FLOW PUMPING AMPLE MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA.  AS A RESULT...A LARGE AREA OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND PORTIONS OF S MEXICO.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE...CURRENTLY ALONG 75W/76W...MOVES INTO THE AREA AND UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
GLFMEX.  BOTTOM LINE...EXPECT SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF UNSETTLED/WET
WEATHER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE SECOND
AREA OF INTEREST IS LOCATED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WHERE A
WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW OVER HAITI IS INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 75W/76W.  THIS INTERACTION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE CENTRAL TO E CARIBBEAN GENERALLY E OF A LINE FROM
HISPANIOLA TO N COLOMBIA.  THE STRONGEST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
LOCATED OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 15N E OF 74W INCLUDING THE ABC
ISLANDS.  HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NWD
ATLANTIC TODAY...ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE N OF 15N.  IN
FACT...THE PATTERN LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED AND WET OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH ABOVE NORMAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

ATLANTIC...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE W ATLC WATERS HAS
FLATTENED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS COURTESY OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPPING SEWD OVER BERMUDA. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE SHOULD
RE-AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A TROUGH SHARPENS
OVER THE GLFMEX.  THIS WOULD TEND TO PRODUCE DEEP-LAYERED
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE W CARIBBEAN OVER CUBA AND N BAHAMAS
SUPPORTING ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER
THE W ATLC OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS GENERALLY W OF A LINE FROM THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 32N70W.  THE S BAHAMAS AND TURKS/CAICOS
SHOULD INITIALLY ESCAPE THIS MOISTURE SURGE AS AN UPPER LOW OVER
HAITI HAS PRODUCED A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL DRYING OVER THE
AREA.  AT THE SURFACE...THE W EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
HAS BEEN WEAKENED BY A REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH SE OF BERMUDA. THE
TROUGH LACKS APPRECIABLE UPPER SUPPORT BUT IS ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF
25N BETWEEN 55W-65W.  FURTHER S...A REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH
REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 29N45W
23N50W 21N60W TO 23N71W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF BOUNDARY ESPECIALLY E OF
55W. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE W PORTION OF THE FRONTAL
TROUGH HAS FRACTURED FORMING A SCREAMING EAGLE TYPE FEATURE
APPROXIMATELY 100 NM NW OF THE TURKS/CAICOS MOVING WNW.  THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH
A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHALLOW TOPPED SHOWERS AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE S TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY AND WED. OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OBSERVED DROPPING QUICKLY
SEWD ROUGHLY ALONG 40W.  THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ACT TO
AMPLIFY/REINFORCE AN EXISTING LARGER SCALE TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO E ATLC FROM 30N25W SWD INTO THE DEEP
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N50W.  THIS EVOLUTION IS WEAKENING THE W
EXTENT...W OF 40W...OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL
ATLC ALONG 10N.  THE RIDGE REMAINS WELL-DEFINED ELSEWHERE E OF
40W INTO AFRICA.

$$
RHOME



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