[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070021
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS ALONG 20W
SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.  A SWIRL IS NOTED NEAR
10N20W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.  A SWIRL IS NOTED NEAR 12N50W.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
10-15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 18N72W ALONG THE HAITI/
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 68W-75W TO INCLUDE N
COLOMBIA....NW VENEZUELA...AND THE ABC ISLANDS.

CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING
WEST 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD MONSOON-TYPE
CIRCULATION IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
THIS OVERALL PATTERN HAS BEEN PRODUCING AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN OVER ALL OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE WAVE SLOWS DOWN WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE
CIRCULATION. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N30W 11N55W 11N65W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA
FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 9W-13W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 23W-47W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM
10N-15N BETWEEN 58W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE SE UNITED STATES ALONG 30N.  THE GULF THUS HAS 10-15 KT
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH
SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING IS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 87W-92W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER N FLORIDA FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 82W-85W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS A TROUGH DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF N OF 18N BETWEEN
82W-97W.  MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/ SUBSIDENCE IS W OF
87W.  DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS CONTINUING TO ADVECT
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO S
FLORIDA TO THE W ATLANTIC.  MOST CONVECTION HAS NOW DISSIPATED
OVER S FLORIDA.  EXPECT CLOUDY AND WET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
OVER FLORIDA FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION
ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 64W-67W.  SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 11N-16N
BETWEEN 83W-88W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 78W.  CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER HISPANIOLA AT
18N72W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS BETWEEN 65W-78W.  ANOTHER RIDGE IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 50W-65W WITH AXIS ALONG 58W. EXPECT
VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N75W.  COLD FRONT IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N55W TO 27N62W.  NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT.  1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 43N18W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 30N38W.
A TROUGH IS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 29N45W TO
17N58W.  A 1014 MB LOW IS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 21N54W.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ALONG THE TROUGH.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 5N BETWEEN
30W-50W.  ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER W AFRICA
NEAR 15N10W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 30W.


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FORMOSA







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