[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061833
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1815 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 19W/20W
SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. EXAMINATION OF SEVERAL DAYS
OF SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WEST AFRICA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS REVEALS
THAT THE WAVE HAS A COMPLEX AND ELONGATED STRUCTURE WITH SEVERAL
AREAS OF VORTICITY EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW.
TRACKING THIS WAVE HAS BEEN MORE DIFFICULT THAN USUAL AND
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT POSITION IS LOW. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 12W AND 17W...AND IN THE ITCZ
FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 18W AND 24W.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 49W/50W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10-15 KT...NOT EASY TO SEE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 9N TO 11N
BETWEEN 47W AND 52W. IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO RE-POSITION THIS
WAVE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS BASED ON STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 55W AND 57W.

CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 71W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
10-15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 18N72W ALONG THE HAITI/
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM 16N TO THE SOUTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 68W AND
71W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FOUND IN THE WATERS FROM
15N TO 17N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA
NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE. THIS WAVE
ALSO HAS HELPED TO SPREAD MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE EAST OF A LINE FROM SOUTHERN
HISPANIOLA TO TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF
COVERAGE AND CONCENTRATION OF PRECIPITATION IS SOUTH OF THE
GUADELOUPE PASSAGE. THIS PATTERN OF WET WEATHER MAY REMAIN
PRETTY MUCH THE SAME UNTIL THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CENTER MOVES OR DISSIPATES...EVEN AFTER THIS WAVE MOVES OUT
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD MONSOON-TYPE
CIRCULATION IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
THIS OVERALL PATTERN HAS BEEN PRODUCING AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN OVER ALL OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE WAVE SLOWS DOWN WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE
CIRCULATION. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 80W ARE PROBABLY MORE RELATED TO THE UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE AREA RATHER THAN TO THE WAVE. A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
WHILE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE 18N72W
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ REACHES THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 12N17W...AND CONTINUES TO
8N21W 8N30W 8N40W 9N47W...9N51W 11N60W 11N68W. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N18W
8N21W 8N30W 8N36W 8N43W 10N50W 10N56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE LOUISIANA/
MISSISSIPPI BORDER ALONG 30N...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/
SUBSIDENCE HAS SETTLED INTO THE GULF WEST OF THE LINE OF
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH CONTINUES TO STREAM
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WEST OF 30N83W 23N87W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 86W AND 95W IN THE U.S.A. GULF COAST
STATES...FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EAST
OF THE 30N83W 23N87W LINE. IT IS LIKELY THAT UNSETTLED AND WET
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR FLORIDA. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED
PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON OF TODAY...BUT MAY BECOME MORE
NOCTURNAL IN NATURE BY MID-WEEK AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW FORMS LATE
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THE NEWLY-DEVELOPED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
GULF IS PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT
WEST OF 90W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.
THE ONE CAVEAT IS A SMALL AREA OF LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WHICH MAY ENHANCE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 18N72W ALONG THE HAITI/
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER IS DOMINATING MUCH OF THE WEATHER
MAP HERE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST SOUTH OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CLOUDS AND OTHER PRECIPITATION COVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF A LINE FROM HISPANIOLA TO TRINIDAD AND
TOBAGO. ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W...NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 70W
AND 80W ARE IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...IN BETWEEN
THE 18N72W CYCLONIC CENTER AND THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
CONFINED TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A
SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W...CAUGHT IN PART OF A BROAD
MONSOON-TYPE CIRCULATION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COMBINE TO
SEND LOTS AND LOTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN CUBA INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...FLORIDA AND PARTS OF THE
BAHAMAS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N45W TO 25N48W TO 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 21N55W...TO 19N56W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N46W TO 21N47W. BROAD
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF THE 18N72W
CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CENTER...SOUTH OF 26N IN THE ATLANTIC
WATERS...WEST OF THE 30N45W 19N56W TROUGH. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS ALONG 30N60W 26N60W. A RIDGE RUNS FROM WESTERN CUBA OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS BEYOND 32N78W. SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS SNUCK
INTO THE AREA...THROUGH 32N57W TO 29N65W. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS MOVING ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE COLD FRONT. THE NORTHERN
PART OF THIS FRONT...NEAR 38N50W...IS ENTRENCHED IN A SOLID
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN
ATLANTIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 33N14W TO 20N40W
TOWARD 13N49W.

$$
MT





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