[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061038
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 06 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR E ATLC ALONG 18W/19W S OF 15N MOVING
W AT AN ESTIMATED SPEED OF 10-15 KT. EXAMINATION OF SEVERAL DAYS
OF SATELLITE IMAGERY AND W AFRICA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS REVEAL
THAT THE WAVE HAS A VERY COMPLEX AND ELONGATED STRUCTURE WITH
SEVERAL AREAS OF VORTICITY EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE.  AS A RESULT...TRACKING THIS WAVE HAS BEEN MORE
DIFFICULT THAN USUAL AND CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT POSITION IS
LOW.  CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE DISPLACED WELL E OF THE WAVE
AXIS OVER AFRICA.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 49W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE CONTINUES TO DEMONSTRATE LIMITED SATELLITE SIGNATURE
MAKING ITS EXACT LOCATION DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  THE PRESENT
POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY ON EXTRAPOLATION.  ENHANCED ITCZ
CONVECTION TO THE WEST BETWEEN 50W-55W SUGGEST THE WAVE MAY BE A
LITTLE FURTHER ALONG AND SOME REPOSITIONING MAY BE REQUIRED ONCE
THE WAVE PASSES THE CAYENNE UPPER AIR SOUNDING LATER TODAY.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER HAITI WHICH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION TO THE EAST BUT MASKING
THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF THE WAVE ITSELF.
HOWEVER...INSPECTION OF AREA SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
POSITION AND INDICATES A MUCH SLOWER SPEED OF 4-5 DEG/DAY.
CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED E OF THE AXIS WITH SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
E OF A LINE FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO TRINIDAD/TOBAGO.
WHILE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED OVER OPEN
WATER...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS BEEN SURGING NWD
WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND SE PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS.  GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.  IN FACT...THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO LEAVE CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SEVERAL DAYS
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.

CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15
KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD MONSOON-TYPE CIRCULATION
OVER THE E PACIFIC AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS
PRODUCING A VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OVER ALL OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
WAVE SLOWS DOWN WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE CIRCULATION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N10W 8N30W 7N40W 12N60W
10N70W...THEN ACROSS NRN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 50W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AFTER TEMPORARILY GETTING RID OF THE PERSISTENT E GLFMEX
MID/UPPER TROUGH PATTERN THIS WEEKEND...ANOTHER TROUGH IS NOW
BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER CENTRAL GLFMEX. THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS ONCE AGAIN
SETTING UP DEEP-LAYERED SLY FLOW OVER THE E GLFMEX AND FLORIDA
AND A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO EXTEND NWD FROM THE W
CARIBBEAN.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS MOISTURE
OVERSPREADING S FLORIDA AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS TROPICAL MOISTURE POOLS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN.  BOTTOM LINE...UNSETTLED/WET WEATHER WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR FLORIDA.  ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...BUT MAY BECOME MORE NOCTURNAL
IN NATURE BY MID-WEEK AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW FORMS LATE TUE OR
WED. OVER THE W GLFMEX...THE NEWLY-DEVELOPED UPPER TROF IS
PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT W OF 90W
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.  THE ONE
CAVEAT IS A SMALL AREA OF LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE
APPROACHING THE N GULF COAST WHICH MAY ENHANCE SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY.

CARIBBEAN...
A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN HAS TAKEN SHAPE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH
TWO IMPRESSIVE AREAS OF CONVECTION.  OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...A
LARGE MONSOON-TYPE CIRCULATION CONTINUES OVER THE E PACIFIC AND
CENTRAL AMERICA ALLOWING MOISTURE TO POOL ACROSS THE AREA.  AS A
RESULT...A LARGE AREA OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS NOW COVER ALL OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
PORTIONS OF S MEXICO.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY
ALONG 88W...MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL GLFMEX.  BOTTOM LINE...EXPECT SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF
UNSETTLED/WET WEATHER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
THE SECOND AREA OF INTEREST IS LOCATED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
WHERE A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW OVER HAITI IS INTERACTING WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W.  THIS INTERACTION IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE E CARIBBEAN GENERALLY E OF A LINE FROM HISPANIOLA
TO TRINIDAD/TOBAGO.  THE STRONGEST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED
OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND HAS BEEN MOVING SEWD OVER THE
WINDWARD/LEEWARD ISLANDS.  THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY NW REACHING THE S BAHAMAS OR TURKS/CAICOS TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...DEEP-LAYERED TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE E CARIBBEAN.  THIS SETUP WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL DAYS OF ACTIVE
CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH MAIN AXIS OF ACTIVITY
SLOWLY SHIFTING N OF 15N BY TUE.

ATLANTIC...
THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE W ATLC WATERS
HAS FLATTENED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS COURTESY OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING BERMUDA. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE SHOULD
RE-AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A TROUGH PATTERN
BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE GLFMEX.  THIS WOULD TEND TO
PRODUCE DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE W CARIBBEAN
OVER CUBA AND N BAHAMAS SUPPORTING ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE W ATLC DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.  THE S BAHAMAS AND TURKS/CAICOS MAY ESCAPE THIS MOISTURE
SURGE AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN MOVES NW FROM W HAITI
PRODUCING CONFLUENT FLOW AND DRY AIR ALOFT TO ITS WEST.  AT THE
SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...CURRENTLY ALONG 28N...IS BEING
WEAKENED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N58W TO
30N65W THEN NW TO 32N72W. THE FRONT LACKS APPRECIABLE UPPER
SUPPORT BUT IS ACCOMPANIED BY BROKEN CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 125 NM EITHER SIDE OF BOUNDARY.  A
REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH IS TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ALONG 27N40W 21N55W 24N65W.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE W
PORTION OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO FRAGMENT FORMING A
SCREAMING EAGLE TYPE FEATURE APPROXIMATELY 200-300 NM NE OF THE
TURKS/CAICOS.  THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHALLOW TOPPED
SHOWERS AFFECTING THE S BAHAMAS LATER TODAY. OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DROPPING QUICKLY SEWD
ALONG 50W AND PRODUCING SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS WITHIN 240 NM TO THE E MAINLY N OF 25N.  THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ACT TO AMPLIFY/REINFORCE THE EXISTING LONG-WAVE
TROUGH PATTERN WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO E
ATLC  FROM 32N35W SWD INTO THE DEEP TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N50W.
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC...AFOREMENTIONED E ATLC TROUGH AS
WEAKENED THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG 10N W OF 35W.  THE RIDGE REMAINS
WELL-DEFINED ELSEWHERE E OF 35W

$$
RHOME




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