[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 06 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR E ATLC HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED EWD
ALONG 17W/18W S OF 15N MOVING W AT AN ESTIMATED SPEED OF 10-15
KT. EXAMINATION OF SEVERAL DAYS OF SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
THAT THE WAVE HAS A VERY COMPLEX STRUCTURE WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF
VORTICITY EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE. TPC WAS
INITIALLY TRACKING THE WESTERNMOST FEATURE BUT LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE EASTERNMOST FEATURE IS MUCH STRONGER
WARRANTING THE REPOSITION.  NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME
CONSOLIDATION MAY OCCUR ONCE THE ENTIRE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE GETS
OVER WATER.  UNTIL THAT OCCURS...TRACKING THIS WAVE WILL BE
QUITE DIFFICULT AND CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT POSITION WILL BE
LOW.  CURRENTLY...THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS DISPLACED WELL E
OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER AFRICA.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 48W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE CONTINUES TO DEMONSTRATE LIMITED SATELLITE SIGNATURE
MAKING ITS EXACT LOCATION DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  THE PRESENT
POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY ON EXTRAPOLATION.  ENHANCED ITCZ
CONVECTION SUGGEST THE WAVE MAY BE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AND
SOME REPOSITIONING MAY BE REQUIRED ONCE THE WAVE PASSES THE
CAYENNE UPPER AIR SOUNDING LATER TODAY.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 69W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
S OF HISPANIOLA WHICH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION TO THE EAST BUT
MASKING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF THE WAVE ITSELF.
HOWEVER...INSPECTION OF AREA SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
POSITION AND INDICATES A MUCH SLOWER SPEED OF 4-5 DEG/DAY.
CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED E OF THE AXIS WITH SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
E OF A LINE FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO TRINIDAD/TOBAGO.
WHILE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED OVER OPEN
WATER...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING NWD
DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS NOW DEVELOPING
OVER PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND SE PORTION OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.  GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.  IN FACT...THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO LEAVE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.

CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15
KT. THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD MONSOON-TYPE
CIRCULATION OVER THE PACIFIC AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS PATTERN
WOULD TEND TO SEND A PORTION OF THE WAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE
MORE POLEWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO ALLOWING A CONTINUATION OF THE VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER ALL OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N10W 8N30W 9N55W...THEN ACROSS NRN
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 50W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AFTER GETTING RID OF THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER TROUGH WHICH
PLAGUED FLORIDA WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF WET WEATHER EARLIER THIS
WEEK...ANOTHER TROUGH IS OBSERVED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SETTING
UP OVER THE W TO CENTRAL GLFMEX. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY EWD REACHING ABOUT 90W LATER TODAY.  THIS PATTERN WILL
ONCE AGAIN SET UP DEEP-LAYERED SLY FLOW OVER THE E GLFMEX AND
FLORIDA WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE ALREADY OBSERVED SURGING NWD FROM
THE W CARIBBEAN OVER CUBA AND S FLORIDA.  THIS SHOULD SPELL MORE
UNSETTLED/WET WEATHER OVER THE E GLFMEX AND FLORIDA AGAIN THIS
WEEK AS PWAT VALUES CLIMB BACK ABOVE 2 INCHES. OVER THE W
GLFMEX...THE NEWLY-DEVELOPED UPPER TROF IS PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT W OF 90W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN...
A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN HAS TAKEN SHAPE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH
TWO IMPRESSIVE AREAS OF CONVECTION.  OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...A
LARGE MONSOON-TYPE CIRCULATION CONTINUES OVER THE E PACIFIC AND
CENTRAL AMERICA ALLOWING MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM TROPICAL WAVES
TO PUSH MORE NWD.  AS A RESULT...A LARGE AREA OF WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS NOW COVERS ALL OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND PORTIONS OF S MEXICO.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE
ENHANCED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY
ALONG 87W...MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL GLFMEX.  BOTTOM LINE...EXPECT SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF
UNSETTLED/WET WEATHER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
THE SECOND AREA OF INTEREST IS LOCATED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
WHERE A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW S OF HISPANIOLA IS INTERACTING
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEARING 70W.  THIS INTERACTION IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND STRONG SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE E CARIBBEAN GENERALLY E OF A LINE FROM HISPANIOLA
TO TRINIDAD/TOBAGO.  THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NW
ACROSS THE W TIP OF HAITI REACHING THE S BAHAMAS OR TURKS/CAICOS
MON NIGHT.  MEANWHILE...DEEP-LAYERED TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN.  THIS SETUP WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL
DAYS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH MAIN AXIS OF
ACTIVITY SLOWLY SHIFTING N OF 15N BY TUE.

ATLANTIC...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WATERS HAS
FLATTENED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS COURTESY OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EWD ALONG 72W N OF 25N. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE SHOULD
RE-AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A TROUGH PATTERN
BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE GLFMEX.  THIS WILL PRODUCE
DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER CUBA AND
N BAHAMAS SUPPORTING ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/TSTMS
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE S BAHAMAS AND TURKS/CAICOS MAY
ESCAPE THIS MOISTURE SURGE AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN
MOVES NW ACROSS W HAITI.  CONFLUENT FLOW W OF THE UPPER LOW
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE SOME DRYING.  AT THE SURFACE...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...CURRENTLY ALONG 28N...IS BEING WEAKENED BY A
COLD FRONT WHICH RECENTLY MOVED THROUGH BERMUDA AND CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM 32N60W TO 31N67W THEN STATIONARY TO 32N72W. BROKEN
CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 125 NM EITHER
SIDE OF FRONT.  A REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH IS TRAPPED BENEATH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 27N40W 21N55W 24N65W.  SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE W PORTION OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO
FRAGMENT FORMING A SCREAMING EAGLE TYPE FEATURE APPROXIMATELY
300 NM N OF PUERTO RICO.  THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY MOVE WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A SMALL AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED
SHALLOW TOPPED SHOWERS POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE S BAHAMAS.
ELSEWHERE...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DROPPING QUICKLY SEWD
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 50W AND PRODUCING ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS AND SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTM
WITHIN 240 NM TO THE E MAINLY N OF 25N.  THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL ACT TO AMPLIFY/REINFORCE THE EXISTING LONG-WAVE TROUGH
WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO E ATLC FROM THE
AZORES INTO THE DEEP TROPICAL ATLC WATERS NEAR 10N50W.  THIS
SAME TROUGH HAS WEAKENED THE TROPICAL ATLC RIDGE ALONG 10N W OF
35W.

$$
RHOME



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