[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 05 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST IS HELD ALONG 19W S OF 15N
NOW CURRENTLY W AT ABOUT 10 KT. EXTRAPOLATION AT ITS PREVIOUS
SPEED WOULD PUT THE WAVE AT ABOUT 19W/20W BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A CLEAR CIRCULATION CENTERED SW OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
10N17W. THE WAVE APPARENTLY HAS A COMPLEX STRUCTURE SINCE A MORE
AMPLIFIED SIGNATURE PASSED DAKAR EARLY ON 06/04. THE GFS DOES
SEEM TO LATCH ONTO THIS PATTERN QUITE WELL BY SHOWING AN
ELONGATED ZONE OF VORTICITY WITH TWO 700 MB VORT MAXES CENTERED
NEAR 11N16W AND 10N21W. THIS MODEL...AS WELL AS THE UKMET AND
ECMWF...THEN CONSOLIDATES THE VORTICITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AND
ACCELERATES THE FEATURE ACROSS THE ATLC. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG
THE ITCZ.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 47W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS LIMITED TO THE ITCZ.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS RELOCATED ALONG 68W S OF 19N MOVING
W 15 KT. THE SAN JUAN P.R. SOUNDINGS SHOW A MID-LEVEL VEERING OF
THE WINDS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z THIS MORNING...SO THE WAVE HAS
JUST RECENTLY PASSED W OF THE ISLAND. THIS POSITION ALSO MATCHES
WELL WITH AN APEX IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD LOCATED N OF
BONAIRE. THE WAVE IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF W/SW MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO THE E OF AN UPPER LOW S OF HAITI...AND THIS HAS ACTED TO
BOTH DECELERATE THE WWD MOVEMENT OF THE WAVE AND FORCE ALL DEEP
CONVECTION E OF THE AXIS. CURRENTLY...NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 62W-67W MAINLY OVER OPEN
WATERS ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ALSO EXTEND FROM THE MONA
PASSAGE EWD AROUND THE LESSER ANTILLES CHAIN TO NEAR ST.
VINCENT. THE BEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST S OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY
KEEP THE DEEPEST CONVECTION TO THE S OF THE GREATER ANTILLES...
BUT THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROF/LOW MAY START TO DRAW
THIS ACTIVITY NWD BY MID-WEEK.

CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT.
THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD MONSOON-TYPE
CIRCULATION OVER THE PACIFIC...AND SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION HAS FORMED DURING THE DAY OVER MOST OF CNTRL AMERICA
SE OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N10W 8N20W 10N29W 9N53W
15N66W...THEN ACROSS NRN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CLUSTER WITHIN 140 NM OF THE AXIS FROM WRN MALI
TO NW GUINEA. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 46W-55W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM E AND W
OF LAKE MARACAIBO.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MID/UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN SPIRALING OFF THE W COAST OF
FLORIDA THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS FINALLY OPENED UP AND BEEN
ABSORBED WITHIN SWLY FLOW...BUT ANOTHER UPPER TROF HAS DEEPENED
OVER THE W GULF WATERS AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD MOISTURE
PLUME THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO S/CNTRL FLORIDA.
REMNANT COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISSIPATING UPPER LOW
SHIFTED OVER THE FL PENINSULA TODAY AND EXACERBATED THE COVERAGE
OF DAYTIME SEA BREEZE CONVECTION GENERALLY S OF THE
ORLANDO/TAMPA AREA. THE NEWLY-DEVELOPED UPPER TROF TO THE W IS
SUPPORTING A MOSTLY SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN FORMING ALONG LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN THE CNTRL GULF FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 84W-89W.

CARIBBEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND
IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION N OF THE PANAMA COAST S OF 14N BETWEEN
77W-83W WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADES ARE CONVERGING WITH
WEAK FLOW NEAR THE COAST. THE CNTRL PART OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
GENERALLY DRY COURTESY OF A NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LOW
CENTERED S OF HAITI NEAR 16N73W...BUT THIS SAME FEATURE IS
CAUSING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO THE E OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR FURTHER EXPLANATION.

ATLANTIC...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS RESTING OVER THE W ATLC WATERS
FROM JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NW TO THE BAHAMAS AND THE
SUBTROPICAL JET IS TAKING MOST OF THE UPPER MOISTURE FROM S
FLORIDA NEWD OVER THE AREA N OF 27N. WEAK SFC RIDGING HAS ALSO
BUILT IN OVER THE AREA WITH A 1020 MB HIGH SW OF BERMUDA NEAR
30N69W. A SHORTWAVE TROF IS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE AREA ALONG 54W
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SE PAST BERMUDA...AND THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE N/CNTRL ATLC WATERS OVER THE NEXT 48
HRS AS THE SHORTWAVE SCOOTS TO THE E. AN ELONGATED SFC TROF IS
STRUNG ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CNTRL ATLC ALONG 32N35W
26N38W 21N60W 24N64W AND IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN PATCHY CLOUDS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 40W-65W. THE UPPER TROF
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS MOVING E ACROSS THE ATLC ALONG
32N31W 12N46W AND IS BEGINNING TO SHUNT THE TROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDING OUT OF AFRICA TO THE E. CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IS
SCANT AT THE MOMENT...BUT EXPECT TSTMS TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES PAST THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
AND INTERACTS WITH DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF.
ELSEWHERE...A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW IS LOCATED N OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 32N14W BUT IS NOT CAUSING SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IN THE AREA.

$$
BERG


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