[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 05 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 19W/20W SOUTH OF
15N MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW AND
MIDDLE CLOUD FIELD IS FOUND JUST OFF THE COAST FROM 7N TO 12N
BETWEEN 15W AND 20W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 15W
AND 21W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS WAVE ACTUALLY IS A BIT MORE
TO THE EAST OF THE SPOT WHERE WE HAVE PLACED IT ON THE SURFACE
MAP ANALYSIS. WE WILL HAVE TO STUDY THIS SITUATION A BIT MORE
DURING THE NEXT SIX HOURS.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W/47W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING
WEST ABOUT 15 KT. ITCZ PRECIPITATION FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN
40W AND 50W HAS LITTLE TO DO WITH THE WAVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 69W/70W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH A WELL-DEFINED
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...WHICH IS
ABOUT 120 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI
BORDER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 62W AND 68W. ISOLATED MODERATE
PRECIPITATION IS SPINNING AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER FROM
15N TO 20N BETWEEN 68W AND 73W.

WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 16N83W 20N84W 23N85W FROM NEAR THE EASTERN
END OF HONDURAS INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 82W...HAVE
FLARED UP IN THE MIDDLE OF THE HISPANIOLA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 16N71W AND THE MONSOON FLOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN WEST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THIS OF
CONVECTIVE CELLS IS PUSHING EVERYTHING NORTHWESTWARD.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 11N15W 9N18W...8N21W 6N30W 7N40W 9N45W...9N48W 10N56W
13N66W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N58W 11N50W 9N44W 7N35W...
AND ELSEWHERE 8N24W 10N14W. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF AFRICA NORTH OF 3N EAST
OF 15W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN...TO THE SOUTH OF A TROUGH IN CALIFORNIA...ACROSS
INTERIOR MEXICO...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF 90W. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. MOISTURE STREAMS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND RIGHT ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...NORTH OF 24N WEST OF 70W...BEFORE
BEING CAUGHT UP IN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 16N71W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/
SUBSIDENCE IN SOME FORM COVERS THE THE GULF WATERS WEST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA-TO-ATLANTIC MOISTURE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 16N71W
IS ABOUT 120 NM SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N
TO 17N BETWEEN 62W AND 68W. ISOLATED MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS
SPINNING AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 68W
AND 73W. ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 15-20 KT. THERE IS INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND THE
16N71W FEATURE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST
15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N83W
20N84W 23N85W FROM NEAR THE EASTERN END OF HONDURAS INTO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FROM 10N TO
13N BETWEEN 75W AND 82W...HAVE FLARED UP IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
HISPANIOLA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 16N71W AND THE
MONSOON FLOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WEST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THIS OF CONVECTIVE CELLS IS
PUSHING EVERYTHING NORTHWESTWARD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 37N35W THROUGH 32N35W TO 25N36W 18N42W AND 18N52W. SHEAR
AXIS FROM 18N52W TO THE 16N71W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL HISPANIOLA
CYCLONIC CENTER. THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE
DISSIPATING ATLANTIC SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH 32N35W
TO 26N40W TO 23N50W 24N60W 26N65W 25N69W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
AND MIDDLE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALONG 30N55W 34N58W IS BEING PUSHED EASTWARD...IN ADVANCE
OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CENTER. TROUGH FROM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N16W TO 25N22W...IN MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 21W AND 30W.

$$
MT


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