[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 05 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 18W
S OF 15N MOVING W AT AN ESTIMATED SPEED OF 15 KT.  THE WAVE
INTRODUCTION IS BASED UPON THE BAMAKO UPPER AIR TIMESECTION
INDICATING AS WELL AS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NOTED IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALONG 10N.  THE FORWARD SPEED IS BASED UPON AN APPARENT
PASSAGE THROUGH THE BAMAKO UPPER AIR STATION AROUND 0000 UTC
JUNE 03 YIELDING ROUGHLY 5-6 DEG OF MOVEMENT PER DAY.   THE WAVE
APPEARS TO BE EXPERIENCING SOME WLY SHEAR WITH MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE E OVER W AFRICA.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W S OF 15N MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT OR ABOUT 5-6 DEG/DAY.  WHILE THERE IS CURRENTLY NO
CONVECTION OR CLOUD SIGNATURE TO TRACK THIS WAVE...AN EARLIER
QUIKSCAT SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL TURNING AND THIS IS THE
BASIS FOR THE WAVE POSITION.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 66W/67W S OF 17N MOVING
W 20 KT OR 7-8 DEG/DAY.  THE WAVE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A
WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF
HISPANIOLA.  AS A RESULT...THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS MASKED BUT
ANALYSIS OF UPPER AIR TIMESECTIONS AND UW-CIMSS SATELLITE
DERIVED PRODUCTS SUPPORT THE CURRENT POSITION IN ADVANCE OF THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION.  AS SUCH...THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE OUT
RUNNING THE UPPER LOW AND THUS MOVING INTO MORE OF A SHEARING
ENVIRONMENT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
DISPLACED E OF THE AXIS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
ACTIVITY FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 55W-65W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SQUALLY WEATHER WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THIS AREA TONIGHT.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO SPREAD MORE NWD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY PRODUCING INCREASING
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
IN FACT...GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED/WET
WEATHER OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD SELY FLOW THAT IS FEEDING UP
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...SO IT HAS AN ILL-DEFINED SIGNATURE IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SRN PART OF THE WAVE IS FOSTERING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 9N30W 9N45W 12N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AFTER PERSISTING OVER THE E GLFMEX FOR SEVERAL DAYS...IT APPEARS
THE SHARP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FINALLY WEAKENING.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
HAS FLATTENED SINCE LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING MORE SW RATHER THAN S.  THUS...THE MAIN PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE CARIBBEAN IS SLOWLY SLIDING
EWD WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE OBSERVED FILTERING EWD OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA. INSPECTION OF AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE SLOWLY TRENDING DOWNWARD AND CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS FAR LESS ACTIVITY THAN LAST NIGHT.  THUS...FLORIDA SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT HAVE PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO MORE OF A
TYPICAL PATTERN OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS.  OVER THE W
GLFMEX...VERY DRY/TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

CARIBBEAN...
THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER OF THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT IS A
RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL LOW S OF HISPANIOLA.  THE UPPER LOW IS
PRODUCING CONFLUENCE AND DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS TO ITS WEST TO
80W WITH DIFFLUENCE TO ITS EAST PRODUCING AN OPTIMAL ENVIRONMENT
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
OVER THE AREA...SEE TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSION ABOVE.  THE UPPER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NW WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CURRENTLY OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN SURGES NWD.  THIS WILL PRODUCE
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  IN FACT...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING A FAIRLY WET/STORY PATTERN UNFOLDING N OF 15N E OF
70W BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW AND MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL
WAVE CONTINUE TO INTERACT.  OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED WITH ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS SLOWLY BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS.
STILL...DEEP-LAYERED TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND AREAS OF CONVECTION W OF 80W. THE
STRONGEST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE S EXTENT OF A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.

ATLANTIC...
STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC
WATERS WITH AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE W PERIPHERY SURGING
NEWD ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS IS CREATING WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY
NW OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BERMUDA.  SHIFTING EWD...A
STRONG LONGWAVE TROF IS DIGGING OVER THE CNTRL ATLC ALONG 32N38W
23N40W TO 17N47W WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE NEAR 32N38W.
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N35W 25N40W
TO A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 24N50W...THEN WEAKENING ALONG 21N55W
25N65W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT E OF 45W...AND AND WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF FRONT W OF
45W.  OVER THE E ATLC...A NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH OVER LOW
BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST N OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE IS NOT PRODUCING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OWING TO THE LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR N OF 20N E OF 35W. OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC....A
WELL-DEFINED RIDGE ALONG 10N REMAINS IN PLACE.

$$
RHOME


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