[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050011
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 04 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

WEAK CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 13N MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT.  CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE LIES OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 65W S OF 17N
MOVING W 20 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DIFFLUENT E
HALF OF A MID/UPPER LOW MOVING W ACROSS THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN...
WHICH IS SUPPORTING A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 55W-64W.  RADAR IMAGERY
FROM MARTINIQUE SHOWS SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION RACING W
OVER THE ISLANDS... WITH OCCASIONAL SQUALLS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
TO NEAR 30 KT. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AS IT MOVES W IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER LOW.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD SELY FLOW THAT IS FEEDING UP
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...SO IT HAS AN ILL-DEFINED SIGNATURE IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SRN PART OF THE WAVE IS FOSTERING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 9N30W 9N45W 12N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF AFRICAN FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 7W-15W...POSSIBLY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TRPCL WAVE TO MOVE OFF THE COAST.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 15W-22W...AND FROM
5N-10N BETWEEN 32W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING 10-15
KT SE FLOW.  MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE W OF 85W.  OVERCAST
CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION ARE E OF 85W DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER FLORIDA N OF 23N AND BETWEEN
75W-85W DRIFTING NE.  THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PULL TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEWD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS TO FLORIDA.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS PLUME MAINLY FROM W CUBA TO S FLORIDA E OF
83W.

CARIBBEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA SEE ABOVE.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N85W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 80W.  A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS NE TO THE W ATLANTIC BEYOND 32N70W.  A WEAKENING
BAND OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM PANAMA TO
CUBA FROM 10N-23N BETWEEN 81W-84W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N71W MOVING W PRODUCING DRY WEATHER
BETWEEN IT AND THE CONVECTION W OF 81W.

ATLANTIC...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N56W IS RIDGING W
TO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 32N34W TO 26N40W TO A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 23N51W TO
22N60W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT.  A 1025
MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 38N19W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...RIDGE IS N OF 24N AND W OF 60W.  TROUGH IS N OF 17N
BETWEEN 35W-60W.  EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 30N40W.
AN INDUCED RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 25W-25W.  A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 30N15W.  AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER W AFRICA NEAR 13N10W.  A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS W OVER THE TROPICS ALONG 10N TO 50W.

$$
FORMOSA


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