[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 04 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

WEAK CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 40W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR
15 KT. THE WRN EDGE OF A 0800 UTC QSCAT PASS JUST CLIPPED THE
EXTRAPOLATED POSITION OF THE WAVE...BUT THE SWATH DOES INDICATE
A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF SELY FLOW LYING JUST S OF THE ITCZ AND
FEEDING TOWARDS THE AXIS. SEE ITCZ FOR CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE LIES OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 62W S OF 17N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DIFFLUENT E
HALF OF A MID/UPPER LOW MOVING W ACROSS THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN...
WHICH IS SUPPORTING A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-17N BETWEEN 56W-65W. THE HEAVIEST
TSTMS CURRENTLY LIE OFFSHORE THE COAST OF GUYANA AND FROM ABOUT
GRENADA NWD TO GUADELOUPE. RADAR IMAGERY FROM MARTINIQUE SHOWS
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION RACING W OVER THE ISLANDS...
WITH OCCASIONAL SQUALLS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT. THE
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT
MOVES W IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER LOW...FOCUSED NEAR PUERTO RICO
AND HISPANIOLA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD SELY FLOW THAT IS FEEDING UP INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO...SO IT HAS AN ILL-DEFINED SIGNATURE IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE SRN PART OF THE WAVE IS FOSTERING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER WRN PANAMA SWD INTO THE PAC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 17N10W 8N20W 5N32W 7N46W 14N60W...
THEN OVER NRN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICAN FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN
13W-18W...POSSIBLY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TRPCL WAVE TO MOVE OFF
THE COAST. SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 200 NM
N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 32W-52W. CONVECTION NEAR GUYANA AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH TRPCL WAVE 62W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS STILL IN PLACE AND IS GIVING
FLORIDA YET ANOTHER DAY OF CLOUDS AND RAIN ALTHOUGH FORTUNATELY
THE UPPER TROF RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEATHER HAS SHIFTED FAR
ENOUGH E SO THAT EVERYBODY W OF ABOUT 85W IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE SHARP MID/UPPER TROF IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 120 NM W OF
FLORIDA AND APPEARS TO BE FINALLY LIFTING SLOWLY TO THE NE...BUT
IT CONTINUES TO PULL TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS
NEWD ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND S FLORIDA. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS PLUME MAINLY FROM W
CUBA TO S FLORIDA E OF 83W. THE STRONGEST TSTMS ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED W OF KEY WEST...OFF THE SE COAST OF FLORIDA...AND
EXTENDING FROM THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SRN GEORGIA. LIGHTER
STRATIFORM RAIN IS EDGING NWD ACROSS CNTRL FLORIDA GENERALLY N
OF A TAMPA-MELBOURNE LINE. ELSEWHERE...SUBSIDING AIR BEHIND THE
TROF IS KEEPING SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR OVER THE W/CNTRL GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
MID/UPPER TROF OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS SWD INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND IS PULLING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS NEWD ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO CNTRL CUBA.
DRY AIR PUNCHING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF IS KEEPING THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CHANNEL UNDER CLEAR SKIES. STRONG EASTERLY
TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE RUNNING INTO THE CNTRL AMERICAN
LANDMASS AND ARE PRODUCING A LINE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WHICH
HAS LED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS NWD TO THE ISLE OF YOUTH FROM 11N-20N
BETWEEN 81W-84W. AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING QUICKLY WWD ACROSS THE
CNTRL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N70W AND IS PRODUCING DRY WEATHER BETWEEN
IT AND THE CONVECTION NEAR NICARAGUA. HOWEVER...A LARGE AREA OF
MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN NWD OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AS THE UPPER
LOW RETREATS...AND THIS IS INTERACTING WITH THE TRPCL WAVE ALONG
62W TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE
FOR FURTHER EXPLANATION. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ALSO FORMING
IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW DUE TO COOLER AIR
ALOFT.

ATLANTIC...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR
24N72W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NWD OVER THE W ATLC WATERS...AND
KEEPING MOST OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE W OVER THE GULF
STREAM. A STRONG LONGWAVE TROF IS DIGGING DOWN OVER THE CNTRL
ATLC ALONG 32N42W 22N50W AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE NEAR 29N44W
IS AMPLIFYING THE BAROCLINIC LEAF CLOUD TO ITS E. THIS FEATURE
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE AREA
ALONG 32N36W 26N43W TO A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 24N49W...THEN
CONTINUES W ALONG 22N56W 26N67W. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A THICK
OVERCAST LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM W OF THE
FRONT E OF 45W...AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS. FARTHER E...A NEARLY
STATIONARY MID/UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE ERN CANARY ISLANDS
WITH LITTLE ASSOCIATED WEATHER. THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS
SUPPRESSED FAIRLY FAR TO THE S ALONG 21N60W 17N34W THEN NE
FEEDING INTO THE UPPER LOW...AND THIS IS KEEPING MOST OF THE
DEEP MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE TROPICS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A CONCENTRATED DUST PLUME OVER THE ATLANTIC AT THE
MOMENT...ALTHOUGH WHATEVER DUST THERE EXISTS IS LOCATED BETWEEN
THE ITCZ AND A LINE 20N16W 16N55W.

$$
BERG


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net