[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041042
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 04 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 12N MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE IS NOT WELL-DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGES
AND THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY ON EXTRAPOLATION.
SEE ITCZ FOR CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 60W S OF 17N MOVING
W 10-15 KT.  THE WAVE IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LOW IN
THE CARIBBEAN WHICH IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND
ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 56W-65W INCLUDING
MUCH OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND TRINIDAD/ TOBAGO.  WITH NEW
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING E OF THE ISLANDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND POSSIBLE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WAVE WILL MOVE IN TANDEM WITH
THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW.  THIS CONFIGURATION WILL PRODUCE AN
OPTIMAL SETUP FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN TODAY.  SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE INITIALLY FOCUSED S OF
16N TODAY BUT WILL BEGIN SPREADING NWD LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY
POSSIBLY REACHING PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE DAY
SUN.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 16N MOVING W
15 KT.  THE WAVE IS LOCATED ON THE CONFLUENT SIDE OF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WHICH IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND
MASKING ITS SATELLITE SIGNATURE. POSITION IS BASED UPON
EXTRAPOLATION FROM APPARENT PASSAGE IN NEARBY UPPER AIR
STATIONS. WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FORMING
OVER PANAMA AND W COLOMBIA DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N10W 8N20W 6N40W 12N60W 7N70W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
COAST OF AFRICA FROM 6N-12N.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ W OF 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
YET ANOTHER RAINY DAY OVER FLORIDA COURTESY OF THE SAME
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E GLFMEX WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE
SUNSHINE STATE WITH WET WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.  WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS...CURRENTLY EXTENDING
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO W CUBA...HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE
OVERNIGHT.  THUS...DEEP-LAYERED SLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP
COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD FROM THE CARIBBEAN WITH EARLIER
0000 UTC KEY WEST AND TAMPA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN
IMPRESSIVE 2.15 AND 2.13 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
RESPECTIVELY.  SUCH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW HAS BEEN TRIGGERING SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE S HALF OF FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN STEADILY SPREADING NWD OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS.  ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY MOVING NWD OVER W CUBA SO SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.
THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS
WHICH WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THE RAINY/STORMY PATTERN
OVER FLORIDA THROUGH SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN...
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OVER THE E GLFMEX EXTENDS SWD INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN FROM W CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
ITS EAST OR WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS THEN NWD OVER W
CUBA NEAR HAVANA. THE STRONGEST AND MOST NUMEROUS OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS MOVING QUICKLY
NWD OVER CENTRAL TO W CUBA.  THIS ACTIVITY IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...GUST WINDS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  FARTHER E...A MID/UPPER CUT-OFF
LOW IS LOCATED JUST N OF THE ABC ISLANDS MOVING W 10-15 KT.
CONFLUENT FLOW ON THE W SIDE OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING DRY/STABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY BETWEEN 70W-80W.
CONVERSELY...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT E OF THE UPPER LOW IS
PRODUCING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TODAY. SATELLITE ALREADY
SHOWS A DEVELOPING AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF
15N E OF 65W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WAVE CROSSING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN TODAY AND SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MARCHES
WESTWARD WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC...
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL
ATLC WATERS WITH STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE W
ATLC... DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...AND A
HIGH-OVER-LOW TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE E ATLC.  FROM W TO
E...DEEP-LAYERED SLY FLOW AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF W ATLC RIDGE
IS FUELING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS W OF
75W INCLUDING THE N BAHAMAS. THIS UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. SHIFTING
EWD...AMPLIFYING TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N45W SWD TO
25N55W WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FROM 32N37W TO 23N55W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY TO 27N67W THEN THEN N OF THE AREA W OF
BERMUDA.  UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/DYNAMICS ALONG THE FRONT ARE
STRONGEST E OF 55W WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 125 NM EITHER SIDE OF BOUNDARY.  WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED  WITHIN 200 NM...MAINLY
POLEWARD...OF THE THE BOUNDARY ELSEWHERE W OF 55W.  THE TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DIGGING THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS REMAINING ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY 32N35W SWD TO 21N53W BY SUNDAY
MORNING. OVER THE E ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM A LOW NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS SW
ALONG TO 21N40W WHERE IT BECOMES A SHEAR AXIS ALONG 21N.  THE
TROUGH IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WITH GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS E OF 35W. OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC..., STRONG
MID/UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ALONG 12N.
DIFFLUENT FLOW AROUND THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ENHANCED ITCZ ACTIVITY.

$$
RHOME




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