[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 040550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUN 04 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 12N MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT.  WAVE IS NOT WELL-DEFINED IN SATELLITE PICTURES AND
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY ON EXTRAPOLATION.  SEE
ITCZ FOR CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ALONG 59W S OF
17N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  THE WAVE IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF AN
UPPER LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN WHICH IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT AND ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  CURRENTLY...SCATTERED
TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN
57W-62W INCLUDING MUCH OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND TRINIDAD/
TOBAGO. EXPECT THIS OVERALL ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
WAVE WILL MARCH WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER LOW.  THIS
CONFIGURATION WILL PRODUCE AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND.
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE INITIALLY FOCUSED S OF 15N DURING THE DAY
SAT BUT WILL BEGIN SPREADING MORE NWD LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY
POSSIBLY REACHING PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE DAY
SUN.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W S OF 16N MOVING
W 15 KT.  THE WAVE IS LOCATED ON THE CONFLUENT SIDE OF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WHICH IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND
MASKING ITS SATELLITE SIGNATURE. POSITION IS BASED UPON
EXTRAPOLATION FROM APPARENT PASSAGE IN NEARBY UPPER AIR
STATIONS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N10W 7N30W 10N50W 12N60W 10N70W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
COAST OF AFRICA FROM 6N-12N.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ W OF 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
YET ANOTHER WET/STORMY DAY IS IN STORE FOR FLORIDA AS LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PERSISTENT
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE E
GULF FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.  CURRENTLY...THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO W CUBA WITH DEEP-LAYERED SLY FLOW
TO THE EAST PUMPING COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD FROM THE
CARIBBEAN.  LATEST KEY WEST AND MIAMI UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN IMPRESSIVE 2.15 AND 1.97 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER.
CURRENTLY...THE STRONGEST AND MOST NUMEROUS ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED
OVER THE S HALF OF FLORIDA WITH RADAR SHOWING STRONG TSTMS
MOVING FROM S TO N OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SW COAST OF
FLORIDA.  ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
MOVING NWD OVER CUBA SO A RAINY NIGHT APPEARS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
S FLORIDA.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NEWD AND WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS.  HOWEVER...THESE SAME MODELS HAVE HAD A POOR TRACK RECORD
WITH THIS FEATURE DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS.  GIVEN THE
APPEARANCE AND TRENDS IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...EXPECT
ANOTHER 24 HOURS OF WET WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME.

CARIBBEAN...
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OVER THE E GLFMEX EXTENDS SWD INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN FROM W CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.  THIS PATTERN IS
SUPPORTING A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.  THERE
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE AND CONDITIONS DO
NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
ITS EAST OR WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS THEN NWD OVER W
CUBA NEAR HAVANA. THE STRONGEST AND MOST NUMEROUS OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS CENTERED NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.  THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING NWD AND WILL POSSIBLY AFFECT
CENTRAL TO W CUBA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  EXPECT HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUST WINDS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.  FARTHER E...A MID/UPPER CUT-OFF LOW IS LOCATED JUST N
OF THE ABC ISLANDS MOVING W 10-15 KT.  CONFLUENT FLOW ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT
WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TO 80W.  CONVERSELY...DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT E OF THE UPPER LOW IS PRODUCING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTTING THE
AREA E OF 70W.  SHOWERS/TSTMS BECOME MUCH STRONGER AND MORE
NUMEROUS NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.  EXPECT INCREASING SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MARCHES WESTWARD WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC...
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL
ATLC WATERS WITH STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE W
ATLC... DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...AND A
HIGH-OVER-LOW TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE E ATLC.  FROM W TO
E...DEEP-LAYERED SLY FLOW AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF W ATLC RIDGE
IS FUELING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS W OF
75W INCLUDING THE N BAHAMAS. THIS ACITIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. SHIFTING EWD...AMPLIFYING TROUGH
ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N45W SWD TO 25N55W WITH ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT FROM 32N38W TO 25N50W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO
25N63W THEN NW BEYOND 33N70W.  UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/DYNAMICS
ALONG THE FRONT ARE STRONGEST E OF 55W WITH WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 125 NM EITHER SIDE
OF BOUNDARY.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 200
NM...MAINLY POLEWARD...OF THE THE BOUNDARY W OF 55W.  THE TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DIGGING THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS REMAINING ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY 32N33W SWD TO 25N45W. OVER THE E
ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA
FROM A LOW NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS SW ALONG TO 21N40W WHERE IT
BECOMES A SHEAR AXIS ALONG 21N.  THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS E OF 35W. OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLC...STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ALONG 12N.  DIFFLUENT FLOW AROUND THE EQUATORWARD
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ENHANCED ITCZ
ACTIVITY.

$$
RHOME



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