[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 040010
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUN 03 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 12N MOVING W 15
KT.  WAVE IS NOT WELL-DEFINED IN SATELLITE PICTURES AND THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ.  HOWEVER
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE WAVE WILL GET BETTER-DEFINED AS IT
HEADS WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLC.

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ALONG 57W S OF
17N MOVING W 20 KT. 24 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS OF 1-2 MB ARE
OBSERVED OVER SURINAME WITH LESSER FALLS IN BARBADOS.  AN UPPER
LOW IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS PROVIDING LIFT/DIVERGENCE WHICH IS
ENHANCING THE WAVE'S CONVECTION.  A WET FEW DAYS ARE LIKELY FOR
THE E CARIBBEAN AS THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LOW AND TROPICAL
WAVE SHOULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCENTRATED IN THE WINDWARD/LEEWARD ISLANDS S OF GUADELOUPE.
AS THE WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE WESTWARD...A BIT MORE MOISTURE COULD
WORK ITS WAY UP TOWARD PUERTO RICO BY EARLY SUN WITH WET WEATHER
LIKELY IN THE ABC ISLANDS BY SAT AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 58W-64W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 16N MOVING W
15 KT.  WAVE SIGNATURE IS MASKED BY THE FAST TRADES IN THE
LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH IT BEING ON THE DRY
SIDE OF A NEARBY UPPER LOW.  POSITION IS A COMBINATION OF
EXTRAPOLATION AND CONVECTION OVER S AMERICA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 7N26W 8N45W 12N57 10N70W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 12W-22W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
30W-50W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N
BETWEEN 50W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE GULF OF MEXICO.  CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO
THE FAR E GULF E OF 85W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS W OF 90W.  A PERSISTENT
SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF.  IT CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER FLORIDA.  THIS TROUGH IS DRIFTING
SLOWLY E WITH BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENCE COMBINED WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE.  LITTLE CHANGE IS LIKELY FOR SAT.

CARIBBEAN...
A 1006 MB LOW IS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N87W A TROUGH
EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W.  NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.  FURTHER E PERSISTENT SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA TO W CUBA FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 81W-84W.  A TROPICAL
WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.  SEE ABOVE.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GULF EXTENDS S THRU THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO N HONDURAS WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE TO
THE E EXTENDING FROM COSTA RICA ACROSS JAMAICA AND E CUBA.
STRONG DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE IS SUPPORTING THE
ABOVE MENTIONED CONVECTION.  FARTHER E...A MID/UPPER CUT-OFF LOW
IS NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS MOVING W 10-15 KT.  CONVERGENCE BETWEEN
THE LOW AND THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE RATHER DRY STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.  EXPECT CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND.
ALSO EXPECT WETTER CONDITIONS S OF 15N E OF THE ABC ISLANDS AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE TROPICAL WAVE BRING MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

ATLANTIC...
PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES FROM CENTRAL
CUBA TO THE BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA COAST FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN
77W-80W.  FURTHER E...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ALONG 32N38W 25N50W 25N60W 32N70W.  A WEAK 1016 MB LOW IS ON THE
FRONT NEAR 26N64W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE
FRONT.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOMINATES THE E ATLANTIC DUE TO A
1025 MB HIGH AT 36N20W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. THE CENTRAL ATLC HAS A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH N OF 23N BETWEEN 40W-60W.  OTHERWISE IN THE E
ATLC...HIGH-OVER-LOW BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A LOW NEAR
THE CANARY ISLANDS AND A HIGH W OF PORTUGAL WITH MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE NOTED N OF 20N E OF 35W.  DOWN IN THE DEEP TROPICS E
OF 55W....MID/UPPER RIDGING IS ALONG 11/12N WITH A HIGH CENTER
NEAR 11N46W AND NEAR GUINEA-BISSAU.  ITCZ CONVECTION IS RATHER
ACTIVE OVER WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE WATERS.

$$
FORMOSA


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