[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 022347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 48W/49W S OF 15N MOVING W 20-25
KT. A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED ALONG
THE ITCZ MOVING NW AS THE WAVE PROGRESSES TO THE E. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 46W-52W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
48W-54W. WHILE SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE EXTREME
SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO A TRPCL WAVE LOCATED DOWNSTREAM...
CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE WILL SPREAD TO THE W AND BEGIN
AFFECTING THESE SAME AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 63W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
A CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS BELLIGERENTLY
SHEARING THE SYSTEM...AND THE LOW-LEVEL SIGNATURE HAS POPPED OUT
FROM UNDER THE CONVECTION S OF PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE AXIS...BUT UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE
KEEPING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION TO THE E OVER THE SRN
WINDWARD ISLANDS...NE VENEZUELA...AND NRN GUYANA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N10W 8N20W 8N30W 10N49W 8N56W
11N68W 9N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDING OUT
OF AFRICA WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 24W. ASIDE FROM
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRPCL WAVES...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE IS WITHIN 250 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 48W-63W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WWD ACROSS PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY E ACROSS THE
CNTRL GULF WITH A CUT-OFF CIRCULATION JUST N OF THE YUCATAN
COAST NEAR 23N88W. BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROF AXIS HAS
SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA INTO THE W
ATLC...AND ALSO MADE THE REGION QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND TSTMS. THIS PATTERN IS KEEPING WET WEATHER ACROSS THIS AREA
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AND EMBEDDED STRONGER
CONVECTION S OF 29N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 89W. A WEAK SFC TROF
LIES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS ALONG 28N86W 22N92W WHICH THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SOME OF THE CONVECTION E OF 90W. THE UPPER
TROF IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE E GULF THRU THE DAY ON FRI
AND WILL FINALLY LIFT N AND BE ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGE LONGWAVE
TROF OVER THE CNTRL U.S. ON SAT. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AND THE E GULF SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS
AND TSTMS ACROSS FLORIDA TOMORROW...BUT THEN THE PATTERN SHOULD
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO A SLIGHTLY DRIER SCENARIO IN WHICH THE NORMAL
DAYTIME TSTMS OCCUR OVER FLORIDA DURING THE WEEKEND. THE W HALF
OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY CLEAR SKIES AS THE RESULT OF
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS BEHIND THE
TROF...BUT VISIBLE IMAGERY DOES SHOW SMOKE EMANATING FROM SRN
MEXICO EXTENDING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND W GULF TO NEAR THE
TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER.

CARIBBEAN...
A SHORTWAVE TROF BRUSHING BY THE YUCATAN COAST EXTENDS SLIGHTLY
SWD DOWN THE COAST TO BELIZE AND IS PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH UPPER
DIVERGENCE TO ITS E TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION N OF 14N W OF 77W TO THE INTERIOR YUCATAN. THE
STRONGEST CLUSTERS ARE CURRENTLY CENTERED BETWEEN HONDURAS AND
JAMAICA WITH LIGHTER SHOWERS/TSTMS STRETCHING FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA EWD ACROSS CUBA. OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
ARE LOCATED OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WATERS NE OF A SFC TROF
WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE NICARAGUA COAST TO THE PANAMA CANAL ZONE.
FARTHER E...A MID/UPPER LOW IS SPINNING W OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 14N64W AND IS DRAWING DRIER AIR SWD OVER THE
E/CNTRL CARIBBEAN. THIS IS PRODUCING FAIR CONDITIONS E OF 77W
WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS BEGINNING TO MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.

ATLANTIC...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FLARING OUT FROM CUBA NEWD TO
32N67W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING W OF
77W TO FLORIDA IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF OVER
THE E GULF OF MEXICO. TO THE E...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF
BRUSHES THE NRN BOUNDARY OF THE AREA BUT THE MORE PRONOUNCED
FEATURE IS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH TROF
EXTENDING NE PAST GUADELOUPE TO 20N53W. THIS IS PRODUCING MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE SRN BAHAMAS EWD INTO THE CNTRL
ATLC...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 45
NM OF A COLD FRONT ALONG 32N46W 27N57W 32N73W. THE SUBTROPICAL
JET IS ACTIVE TO THE E OF THE CARIBBEAN LOW AND EXTENDS ALONG
15N61W 20N47W THEN DUE EWD TO THE AFRICAN COAST. THIS IS DRAWING
A LARGE SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDINESS NWD ABOUT 1000 NM E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO
NEAR THE ITCZ. THE JET IS SHOOTING AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM SENEGAL WWD TO 12N48W...A
FEATURE WHICH IS KEEPING THE ITCZ OVER THE E ATLC RATHER FLAT.
ELSEWHERE...A SLOW-MOVING MID/UPPER TROF STRETCHES FROM THE
CANARY ISLANDS SW TO 23N30W BUT IS ONLY HELPING TO REINFORCE THE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NE PART OF THE AREA.

$$
BERG


WWWW
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